The Timing and Severity of the 1980 Recession

Victor Zarnowitz and Geoffrey H. Moore, Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition (Ballinger, 1983), chap. 2, https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/business-cycles-inflation-and-forecasting-2nd-edition/timing-and-severity-1980-recession.