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Institutional Affiliation: Harvard University
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|November 2019||Redeemable Platform Currencies|
with Kenneth S. Rogoff: w26464
Can massive online retailers such as Amazon and Alibaba issue digital tokens that potentially compete with bank debit accounts? There is a long history of trading stamps and loyalty points, but new technologies are poised to sharply raise the significance of redeemable assets as a store of value. Here we develop a simple stylized model of redeemable tokens that can be used to study sales and pricing strategies for issuing tokens, including ICOs. Our central finding is that platforms can generally earn higher revenues by making tokens non-tradable unless they can generate a sufficiently high outside-platform convenience yield.
|February 2017||Bubbles for Fama|
with Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer: w23191
We evaluate Eugene Fama’s claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on US industry returns 1926-2014 and international sector returns 1985-2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio does not, on average, predict unusually low returns going forward; (2) such sharp price increases predict a substantially heightened probability of a crash; (3) attributes of the price run-up, including volatility, turnover, issuance, and the price path of the run-up can all help forecast an eventual crash and future returns; and (4) some of these characteristics can help investors earn superior returns by timing the bubble. Results hold similarly in US and international samples.
Published: Robin Greenwood & Andrei Shleifer & Yang You, 2018. "Bubbles for Fama," Journal of Financial Economics, . citation courtesy of