NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Thomas Winberry

Booth School of Business
University of Chicago
5807 South Woodlawn Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
Tel: 773/702-1264

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NBER Program Affiliations: EFG
NBER Affiliation: Faculty Research Fellow
Institutional Affiliation: University of Chicago

NBER Working Papers and Publications

November 2019The Investment Network, Sectoral Comovement, and the Changing U.S. Business Cycle
with Christian vom Lehn: w26507
We argue that the input-output network of investment goods across sectors is an important propagation mechanism for understanding business cycles. First, we show that the empirical network is dominated by a few “investment hubs” that produce the majority of investment goods, are highly volatile, and are strongly correlated with the cycle. Second, we embed this network into a multisector model and show that shocks to investment hubs have large aggregate effects while shocks to non-hubs do not. Finally, we measure realized sector-level productivity shocks in the data, feed them into our model, and find that hub shocks account for a large and increasing share of aggregate fluctuations. This fact allows the model to match the decline in the cyclicality of labor productivity and other business ...
January 2018Financial Heterogeneity and the Investment Channel of Monetary Policy
with Pablo Ottonello: w24221
We study the role of financial frictions and firm heterogeneity in determining the investment channel of monetary policy. Empirically, we find that firms with low default risk – those with low debt burdens, high credit ratings, and large “distance to default” – are the most responsive to monetary shocks. We interpret these findings using a heterogeneous firm New Keynesian model with default risk. In our model, low-risk firms are more responsive to monetary shocks because their marginal cost of financing investment is relatively flat. The aggregate effect of monetary policy therefore depends on the distribution of default risk, which varies over time.
June 2017When Inequality Matters for Macro and Macro Matters for Inequality
with SeHyoun Ahn, Greg Kaplan, Benjamin Moll, Christian Wolf
in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, Martin Eichenbaum and Jonathan A. Parker, editors
When Inequality Matters for Macro and Macro Matters for Inequality
with SeHyoun Ahn, Greg Kaplan, Benjamin Moll, Christian Wolf: w23494
We develop an efficient and easy-to-use computational method for solving a wide class of general equilibrium heterogeneous agent models with aggregate shocks, together with an open source suite of codes that implement our algorithms in an easy-to-use toolbox. Our method extends standard linearization techniques and is designed to work in cases when inequality matters for the dynamics of macroeconomic aggregates. We present two applications that analyze a two-asset incomplete markets model parameterized to match the distribution of income, wealth, and marginal propensities to consume. First, we show that our model is consistent with two key features of aggregate consumption dynamics that are difficult to match with representative agent models: (i) the sensitivity of aggregate consumption to...
 
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