NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Ryan Williams

Department of Agriculture
355 E Street SW
Washington, DC 20024

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: Department of Agriculture

NBER Working Papers and Publications

September 2018Impacts of Climate Change and Extreme Weather on US Agricultural Productivity: Evidence and Projection
with Sun Ling Wang, Eldon Ball, Richard Nehring, Truong Chau
in Agricultural Productivity and Producer Behavior, Wolfram Schlenker, editor
Under climate change, the average daily temperature and the frequency of extreme weather occurrences are expected to increase in the United States. This paper employs a stochastic frontier approach to examine how climate change and extreme weather affect U.S. agricultural productivity using 1940-1970 historical weather data (mean and variation) as the norm. We have four major findings. First, using a temperature humidity index (THI) load and an Oury index for the period 1960-2010 we find each state has experienced different patterns of climate change in the past half century, with some states incurring drier and warmer conditions than others. Second, higher THI loads (more heat waves) and lower Oury indexes (much drier) tend to lower a state’s productivity. Third, the impacts of THI load s...
June 2017Impacts of Climate Change and Extreme Weather on U.S. Agricultural Productivity: Evidence and Projection
with Sun Ling Wang, Eldon Ball, Richard Nehring, Truong Chau: w23533
This paper employs a stochastic frontier approach to examine how climate change and extreme weather affect U.S. agricultural productivity using 1940-1970 historical weather data (mean and variation) as the norm. We have four major findings. First, using temperature humidity index (THI) load and Oury index for the period 1960-2010 we find each state has experienced different patterns of climate change in the past half century, with some states incurring drier and warmer conditions than others. Second, the higher the THI load (more heat waves) and the lower the Oury index (much drier) will tend to lower a state’s productivity. Third, the impacts of THI load shock and Oury index shock variables (deviations from historical norm fluctuations) on productivity are more robust than the level of TH...
 
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