NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Ryan J. Shyu

Amazon.com, Inc.
440 Terry Avenue
North Seattle, WA 98109

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: Amazon.com, Inc.

NBER Working Papers and Publications

October 2019Behavioral Responses to State Income Taxation of High Earners: Evidence from California
with Joshua Rauh: w26349
Using administrative income tax data, we analyze the response to Proposition 30, a 2012 ballot measure that increased California marginal tax rates by up to 3 percentage points for high-income households. Relative to baseline rates of departure for their income levels, an additional 0.8% of the residential tax base that landed in the top bracket left California in 2013. Using matched out-of-state taxpayers as controls reveals an income elasticity with respect to the marginal net-of-tax rate of 2.5-3.2 for high-earners who stayed. These responses together eroded 45.2% of state windfall tax revenues within the first year and 60.9% within two years, with the extensive margin accounting for 9.5% of this total.
 
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