Department of Economics
106 Central St.
Wellesley, MA 02481
Institutional Affiliation: Wellesley College
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|September 2016||Voter Response to Peak and End Transfers: Evidence from a Conditional Cash Transfer Experiment|
with Sebastian Galiani, Nadya Hajj, Pablo Ibarraran, Nandita Krishnaswamy: w22588
In a Honduran field experiment, sequences of cash transfers to poor households varied in amount of the largest (“peak”) and last (“end”) transfers. Larger peak-end transfers increased voter turnout and the incumbent party’s vote share in the 2013 presidential election, independently of cumulative transfers. A plausible explanation is that voters succumbed to a common cognitive bias by applying peak-end heuristics. Another is that voters deliberately used peak-end transfers to update beliefs about the incumbent party. In either case, the results provide experimental evidence on the classic non-experimental finding that voters are especially sensitive to recent economic activity.
|July 2016||External and Internal Validity of a Geographic Quasi-Experiment Embedded in Cluster-Randomized Experiment|
with Sebastian Galiani, Brian Quistorff: w22468
This paper analyzes a geographic quasi-experiment embedded in a cluster-randomized experiment in Honduras. In the experiment, average treatment effects on school enrollment and child labor were large—especially in the poorest blocks—and could be generalized to a policy-relevant population given the original sample selection criteria. In contrast, the geographic quasi-experiment yielded point estimates that, for two of three dependent variables, were attenuated. A judicious policy analyst without access to the experimental results might have provided misleading advice based on the magnitude of point estimates. We assessed two main explanations for the difference in point estimates, related to external and internal validity.
Published: Internal and external validity of a geographical quasi-experiment embedded in a randomized control experiment, in Advances in Econometrics, Volume 38, M. Cattaneo and J. C. Escanciano (eds.), North-Holland, 2016
|August 2010||Education Reforms|
with Susanna Loeb
in Targeting Investments in Children: Fighting Poverty When Resources are Limited, Phillip B. Levine and David J. Zimmerman, editors