NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Vegard M. Nygaard

Department of Economics
University of Houston
3623 Cullen Boulevard
Houston, TX 77204
United States
Tel: 6124028450

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Institutional Affiliation: University of Houston

NBER Working Papers and Publications

June 2019Implications of Increasing College Attainment for Aging in General Equilibrium
with Juan Carlos Conesa, Timothy J. Kehoe, Gajendran Raveendranathan: w26000
We develop an overlapping generations general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy with heterogeneous consumers who face idiosyncratic earnings and health risk to study the implications of increasing college attainment, decreasing fertility, and increasing longevity (2005–2100). While all three trends contribute to a higher old age dependency ratio, increasing college attainment has different implications because it increases labor productivity. Decreasing fertility and increasing longevity require the government to increase the average labor tax rate from 33.5 to 47.1 percent. Increasing college attainment lowers the required tax increase by 12.0 percentage points. The labor tax rate required to balance the government budget is higher under general equilibrium than in a small open econom...

Published: Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe & Vegard M. Nygaard & Gajendran Raveendranathan, 2019. "Implications of Increasing College Attainment for Aging in General Equilibrium," European Economic Review, . citation courtesy of

May 2017Macroeconomic Effects of Medicare
with Juan Carlos Conesa, Daniela Costa, Parisa Kamali, Timothy J. Kehoe, Gajendran Raveendranathan, Akshar Saxena: w23389
This paper develops an overlapping generations model to study the macroeconomic effects of an unexpected elimination of Medicare. We find that a large share of the elderly respond by substituting Medicaid for Medicare. Consequently, the government saves only 46 cents for every dollar cut in Medicare spending. We argue that a comparison of steady states is insufficient to evaluate the welfare effects of the reform. In particular, we find lower ex-ante welfare gains from eliminating Medicare when we account for the costs of transition. Lastly, we find that a majority of the current population benefits from the reform but that aggregate welfare, measured as the dollar value of the sum of wealth equivalent variations, is higher with Medicare.

Published: Juan Carlos Conesa & Daniela Costa & Parisa Kamali & Timothy J. Kehoe & Vegard M. Nygard & Gajendran Raveendranathan & Akshar Saxena, 2017. "Macroeconomic effects of Medicare," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, . citation courtesy of

 
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