Michel Z. Grosz
Bureau of Economics
Federal Trade Commission
600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20580
Institutional Affiliation: Federal Trade Commission
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|August 2019||Selection into Identification in Fixed Effects Models, with Application to Head Start|
with Douglas L. Miller, Na’ama Shenhav: w26174
Many papers use fixed effects (FE) to identify causal impacts of an intervention. In this paper we show that when the treatment status only varies within some groups, this design can induce non-random selection of groups into the identifying sample, which we term selection into identification (SI). We begin by illustrating SI in the context of several family fixed effects (FFE) applications with a binary treatment variable. We document that the FFE identifying sample differs from the overall sample along many dimensions, including having larger families. Further, when treatment effects are heterogeneous, the FFE estimate is biased relative to the average treatment effect (ATE). For the general FE model, we then develop a reweighting-on-observables estimator to recover the unbiased ATE from...
|October 2015||Locate Your Nearest Exit: Mass Layoffs and Local Labor Market Response|
with Andrew Foote, Ann Huff Stevens: w21618
Large shocks to local labor markets can cause long-lasting changes to employment, unemployment and the local labor force. This study examines the relationship between mass layoffs and the long-run size of the local labor force. It considers four main channels through which the local labor force may adjust: in-migration, out-migration, retirement, and disability insurance enrollment. We show that these channels account for over half of the labor force reductions following a mass layoff event. By measuring the residual difference between these channels and net labor force change, we also show that labor force non-participation accounted for much of the local labor force response in the period during and after the Great Recession.
Published: Locate Your Nearest Exit: Mass Layoffs and Local Labor Market Response Andrew Foote, Michel Grosz, and Ann Stevens ILR Review First Published January 31, 2018 https://doi.org/10.1177/0019793917753095 citation courtesy of
|April 2015||Career Technical Education and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from California Community Colleges|
with Ann Huff Stevens, Michal Kurlaender: w21137
Career technical education (CTE) programs at community colleges are increasingly seen as an attractive alternative to four-year colleges, yet little systematic evidence exists on the returns to specific certificates and degrees. We estimate returns to CTE programs using administrative data from the California Community College system linked to earnings records. We employ estimation approaches including individual fixed effects and individual-specific trends, and find average returns to CTE certificate and degrees that range from 14 to 45 percent. The largest returns are for programs in the healthcare sector; estimated returns in non-health related programs range from 15 to 23 percent.
Published: Ann Huff Stevens & Michal Kurlaender & Michel Grosz, 2019. "Career Technical Education and Labor Market Outcomes," Journal of Human Resources, vol 54(4), pages 986-1036. citation courtesy of