Lars A. Lochstoer

University of California at Los Angeles

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Institutional Affiliation: University of California at Los Angeles

NBER Working Papers and Publications

December 2018Conditional Dynamics and the Multi-Horizon Risk-Return Trade-Off
with Mikhail Chernov, Stig R. H. Lundeby: w25361
We propose testing asset-pricing models using multi-horizon returns (MHR). MHR effectively generate a new set of test assets that are endogenous to the model and that identify a broad set of possible conditional misspecifications. We apply MHR-based testing to prominent linear factor models and show that these models typically do a poor job of pricing longer-horizon returns, with pricing errors of similar magnitude as the risk premiums they were designed to explain. We trace the errors to the conditional factor dynamics. Explicitly incorporating factor timing in the models often makes mispricing worse, posing a challenge for future research.
December 2013Parameter Learning in General Equilibrium: The Asset Pricing Implications
with Pierre Collin-Dufresne, Michael Johannes: w19705
Parameter learning strongly amplifies the impact of macro shocks on marginal utility when the representative agent has a preference for early resolution of uncertainty. This occurs as rational belief updating generates subjective long-run consumption risks. We consider general equilibrium models with unknown parameters governing either long-run economic growth, the variance of shocks, rare events, or model selection. Overall, parameter learning generates long-lasting, quantitatively significant additional macro risks that help explain standard asset pricing puzzles.

Published: Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Michael Johannes & Lars A. Lochstoer, 2016. "Parameter Learning in General Equilibrium: The Asset Pricing Implications," American Economic Review, vol 106(3), pages 664-698.

March 2011Limits to Arbitrage and Hedging: Evidence from Commodity Markets
with Viral V. Acharya, Tarun Ramadorai: w16875
Motivated by the literature on limits-to-arbitrage, we build an equilibrium model of commodity markets in which speculators are capital constrained, and commodity producers have hedging demands for commodity futures. Increases (decreases) in producers' hedging demand (speculators' risk-capacity) increase hedging costs via price-pressure on futures, reduce producers' inventory holdings, and thus spot prices. Consistent with our model, producers' default risk forecasts futures returns, spot prices, and inventories in oil and gas market data from 1980-2006, and the component of the commodity futures risk premium associated with producer hedging demand rises when speculative activity reduces. We conclude that limits to financial arbitrage generate limits to hedging by producers, and affect bo...

Limits to Arbitrage and Hedging: Evidence from Commodity Markets” with Lars Lochstoer and Tarun Ramadorai, forthcoming, Journal of Financial Economics. citation courtesy of

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