December 2015 - Working Paper21771 A Bayesian asset-pricing test is derived that is easily computed in closed-form from the standard F-statistic. Given a set of candidate traded factors, we develop a related test procedure that permits an analysis of model comparison, i.e., the computation of model probabilities for the collection of...
November 2015 - Working Paper21698 A common approach to comparing asset pricing models with traded factors involves a competition between models in pricing test-asset returns. We find that such practice, while seemingly reasonable, cannot be relied on to determine which is the superior model for several widely accepted criteria...
December 2001 - Working Paper8666 In the asset pricing literature, time-variation in market expected excess return captured by financial ratios like dividend yield is typically viewed as a reflection of either changing risk, related to the business cycle, or irrational mispricing. Extending the work on asset allocation and dividend...