David G. Seim
Universitetsvägen 10 A, 106 91 Stockholm
Institutional Affiliation: Stockholm University
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|July 2020||Bounds on a Slope from Size Restrictions on Economic Shocks|
with , : w27556
We study the problem of learning about the slope of a linear relationship between an outcome (e.g., quantity) and an input (e.g., price) when the outcome is subject to time-varying, unobserved economic shocks. We show that restrictions on the absolute magnitude of the economic shocks are informative for the value of the slope. We argue that such restrictions are reasonable in some economic situations. We illustrate with an application to the demand and supply of food grains. We consider extensions including to the case of a nonlinear relationship.
|October 2019||Hysteresis from Employer Subsidies|
with , : w26391
This paper uses administrative data to analyze a large and 8-year long employer payroll tax rate cut in Sweden for young workers aged 26 or less. First, we document that while active, the reform raised youth employment among the treated workers. The long-run effects are twice as large as the medium-run effects and likely driven by labor demand (as workers' take-home wages did not respond). Second, we document novel labor-demand-driven "hysteresis" from this policy – i.e. persistent employment effects even after the subsidy no longer applies – along two dimensions. Over the lifecycle, employment effects persist even after workers age out of eligibility. Two years after the repeal, employment remains elevated at the maximal reform level in the formerly subsidized ages. These hysteresi...
|October 2017||Payroll Taxes, Firm Behavior, and Rent Sharing: Evidence from a Young Workers' Tax Cut in Sweden|
with , : w23976
This paper uses administrative data to analyze a large and long-lasting employer payroll tax rate cut from 31% down to 15% for young workers (aged 26 or less) in Sweden. We find a zero effect on net-of-tax wages of young treated workers relative to slightly older untreated workers, even in the medium run (after six years). Simple graphical cohort analysis shows compelling positive effects on the employment rate of the treated young workers, of about 2-3 percentage points, which arise primarily from fewer separations (rather than more hiring). These employment effects are larger in places with initially higher youth unemployment rates. We also analyze the firm-level effects of the tax cut. We sort firms by the size of the tax windfall and trace out graphically the time series of firms' out...
Published: Emmanuel Saez & Benjamin Schoefer & David Seim, 2019. "Payroll Taxes, Firm Behavior, and Rent Sharing: Evidence from a Young Workers' Tax Cut in Sweden," American Economic Review, vol 109(5), pages 1717-1763. citation courtesy of