NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Kathleen McDill

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Institutional Affiliation: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

NBER Working Papers and Publications

July 1999Are All Banking Crises Alike? The Japanese Experience in International Comparison
with Michael Hutchison: w7253
This paper examines episodes of banking sector distress for a large sample of developed and developing countries, highlighting the experience of Japan. By a host of criteria, Japan appeared to be in a stronger position than most countries at the onset of banking problems low inflation, appreciating currency, balanced government budget, and large external surpluses. However, Japan followed a clear international boom-and-bust pattern in terms of real output growth, credit growth and stock price movements. We estimate a multivariate probit model that links the likelihood of banking problems to a set of macroeconomic variables and institutional characteristics. The model predicts a high probability of banking sector distress in Japan in the early 1990s. In particular, the likelihood of an epi...

Published: Hutchison, Michael and Kathleen McDill. "Are All Banking Crises Alike? The Japanese Experience In International Comparison," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 1999, v13(3,Sep), 155-180. citation courtesy of

 
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