The Economics of Firearm Markets, Crime, and Gun Violence

February 6, 2027 — Cambridge MA

Gun violence in all its forms imposes heavy social costs in the United States, costs that are higher than in other wealthy nations. The situation is nevertheless dynamic: the firearms homicide rate surged during the early 2020s and has been dropping rapidly since then. Firearm suicide rates have been rising for a long time. Public policy is also evolving: gun regulations are a source of ongoing litigation and there are a number of proposals for regulatory reform.

To better understand the determinants of gun violence and gun-related crime, as well as the impact of a range of public policies on these outcomes, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), with the support of Arnold Ventures, will convene a research conference on Saturday, February 6, 2027 in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The meeting will be organized by NBER affiliates Marcella Alsan (Stanford University), Philip Cook (Duke University), and Sara Heller (University of Michigan). 

The organizers welcome submissions on a wide range of firearm-related issues drawing on various sub-fields of economics, including industrial organization, labor, law and economics, health, and public finance. Particular topics of interest include, but are not limited to:

  • The consequences and social costs of gun violence—violent crime, suicide, political violence, or mass shootings—for communities, children, policy preferences, residential and commercial location decisions, property values, health, and quality of life.
  • The effects of regulations, taxes, and insurance rules on legal and secondary firearm markets, gun carrying, crime, suicide, and self-defense.
  • The role of law enforcement in preventing gun crime and potentially misusing firearms.
  • The effects of social programs on gun violence.
  • The sources of firearms used in crime and suicide, including legal sale, illicit transactions, theft, and private manufacture.
  • The supply side of lethal firearm markets including the manufacturing and trade of firearms and the development of markets for less lethal alternatives.
  • The dynamics of gun violence, with a particular focus on the epidemics associated with crack cocaine, opioid use, and more recently COVID. 

The organizers welcome submissions of both empirical and theoretical research, including papers by scholars who are early in their careers and who are not NBER affiliates. Completed papers, as well as work in progress that could be presented in a short paper session, may be submitted.  Research presented at NBER conferences may not make policy recommendations.

To be considered for inclusion on the program, papers must be uploaded by 11:59pm ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026 via the following link: 

Submit papers

Please do not submit papers that have been published or accepted for publication.

The NBER will cover the travel costs for two authors per paper, subject to NBER travel reimbursement regulations. All additional authors are welcome to attend at their own expense.  The conference will be live-streamed on the NBER YouTube channel. Questions about this conference may be addressed to confer@nber.org.