How Short- and Long-term Interest Rates Have Behaved Cyclically

Reuben A. Kessel, The Cyclical Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates (NBER, 1965), chap. 3, https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/cyclical-behavior-term-structure-interest-rates/how-short-and-long-term-interest-rates-have-behaved-cyclically.