NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation

Francesco Bianchi, Martin Lettau, Sydney C. Ludvigson

NBER Working Paper No. 22572
Issued in August 2016, Revised in August 2017
NBER Program(s):AP, EFG, ME

This paper presents evidence of infrequent shifts, or "regimes," in the mean of the consumption-wealth variable cayt that are strongly associated with low frequency fluctuations in the real value of the Federal Reserve's primary policy rate, with low policy rates associated with high asset valuations, and vice versa. By contrast, there is no evidence that infrequent shifts to high asset valuations and low policy rates are associated with higher economic growth or lower economic uncertainty; indeed the opposite is true. Additional evidence shows that low interest rate/high asset valuation regimes coincide with significantly lower equity market risk premia.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w22572

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