NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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19 September 2014

Population Dynamics after a Natural Disaster

Jenna Nobles, Elizabeth Frankenberg, and Duncan Thomas study the fertility response to an unanticipated mortality shock that resulted from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which killed large shares of the residents of some Indonesian communities but caused no deaths in neighboring communities. They find that mothers who lost one or more children in the disaster were significantly more likely to bear additional children after the tsunami and that women without children before the tsunami initiated family-building earlier in communities where tsunami-related mortality rates were higher.

18 September 2014

The Distributional Effects of Head Start

Marianne Bitler, Hilary Hoynes, and Thurston Domina analyze data from the Head Start Impact Study, the first national randomized experiment designed to evaluate this program. They find large gains in cognitive achievement during the pre-school period, with the largest gains at the bottom of the distribution.

17 September 2014

Tax Rate Forecasts from the Tax-Exempt Bond Market

Using high-frequency bond data from the periods around the 1992 and 2000 presidential elections, Lorenz Kueng finds that financial markets are remarkably successful in forecasting future tax rate changes in both the short and the long term.

16 September 2014

Raising Enrollment Rates for At-Risk Youth

Philip Oreopoulos, Robert Brown, and Adam Lavecchia study the effects of Toronto's Pathways to Education program, a comprehensive youth support program designed to improve academic outcomes for high school students from poor socio-economic backgrounds. They find sharp increases in high school graduation and post-secondary enrollment rates, sometimes as large as 50 percent.
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