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19 September 2014
Jenna Nobles, Elizabeth Frankenberg, and Duncan Thomas study the fertility response to an unanticipated mortality shock that resulted from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which killed large shares of the residents of some Indonesian communities but caused no deaths in neighboring communities. They find that mothers who lost one or more children in the disaster were significantly more likely to bear additional children after the tsunami and that women without children before the tsunami initiated family-building earlier in communities where tsunami-related mortality rates were higher.
18 September 2014
Marianne Bitler, Hilary Hoynes, and Thurston Domina analyze data from the Head Start Impact Study, the first national randomized experiment designed to evaluate this program. They find large gains in cognitive achievement during the pre-school period, with the largest gains at the bottom of the distribution.
17 September 2014
Using high-frequency bond data from the periods around the 1992 and 2000 presidential elections, Lorenz Kueng finds that financial markets are remarkably successful in forecasting future tax rate changes in both the short and the long term.
16 September 2014
Philip Oreopoulos, Robert Brown, and Adam Lavecchia study the effects of Toronto's Pathways to Education program, a comprehensive youth support program designed to improve academic outcomes for high school students from poor socio-economic backgrounds. They find sharp increases in high school graduation and post-secondary enrollment rates, sometimes as large as 50 percent.
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15 September 2014
Erling Barth, Alex Bryson, James Davis, and Richard Freeman find that much of the increase in earnings inequality between 1970 and 2010 was due to increased dispersion of the earnings among the establishments where individuals work, not between different workers within each establishment.
12 September 2014
Lucia Foster, Cheryl Grim, and John Haltiwanger report that recent economic downturns prior to the Great Recession were periods of accelerated reallocation across firms, relative to "normal times," and that this reallocation was more productivity enhancing than normal reallocation. During the Great Recession, however, reallocation declined and the reallocation that did occur was less productivity enhancing than that in prior recessions.
11 September 2014
Peter Benczur and Cosmin Ilut study the relationship between a sovereign borrower’s past repayment history and that country’s current borrowing costs using data on loans to developing countries over the 1973-1981 period. They find that borrowers with a past default history face higher borrowing costs. This appears primarily due to lenders punishing these borrowers for past behavior, rather than to elevated risk of future defaults.
10 September 2014
Charles Baum and Christopher Ruhm study the economic effects of working while in high school using data from the 1979 and 1997 cohorts of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. They examine individuals roughly a decade after they graduated from high school, and estimate that the wage benefits of having worked 20 hours per week as a senior have fallen from 8.3 percent for the earlier cohort to 4.4 percent for the later one. The gains in post-graduation wages in both cohorts are largely restricted to women.
9 September 2014
Vicki Been, Ingrid Gould Ellen, Michael Gedal, Edward Glaeser, and Brian McCabe find that between 1974 and 2009, when an area of New York City was designated a historic neighborhood, property values both in the neighborhood and nearby increased. There was a modest reduction in new construction after designation. The effects were not observed for Manhattan, but were present for other parts of the city.
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