New NBER Research
21 August 2014
Peter Cappelli finds little evidence of an under-supply of skilled workers in the U.S. labor market, and concludes that over-education of workers is a persistent situation in the U.S. labor market.
20 August 2014
Jesse Margolis, Jason Hockenberry, Michael Grossman, and Shin-Yi Chou find that heart disease patients who receive Coronary Artery Bypass Graft, an invasive procedure, are 12 percentage points more likely to quit smoking in the next year than ex ante similar patients who received Percutaneous Coronary Intervention, a less invasive procedure. This difference in post-procedure behavior helps to explain the difference in long-term outcomes for the two procedures.
19 August 2014
Francis Longstaff and Ilya Strebulaev study corporate income tax returns from 1926 through 2009 and find that changes in corporate leverage are directly related to changes in corporate tax rates for all but the smallest firms. Small firms facing financial constraints adapt more slowly than other firms to changes in tax incentives for leverage.
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15 August 2014
Melissa Boyle and Joanna Lahey analyze how the expansion of Veterans Administration (VA) health insurance affected labor supply of the beneficiaries of this expansion and their spouses. While total household labor supply declined as a result of reduced labor supply of the veterans who received new benefits, on average the labor supply of their spouses increased. This suggests that financial incentives dominate the complementarities of spousal leisure.
14 August 2014
Oliver Bunn and Robert Shiller construct Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings (CAPE) ratios for the aggregate U.S. stock market, and for the Industrials, Utilities, and Railroad sectors, from the 1870s through 2013. They find that the CAPE ratio has predictive power for future stock market returns, both for the overall market and for each of the three sectors.
13 August 2014
Janet Currie and Hannes Schwandt study all births in New York City that were in utero on 9/11, when the collapse of the World Trade Center released a toxic dust cloud in lower Manhattan. They find elevated rates of prematurity, low birth weight, and admission to neonatal intensive care facilities (NICUs) for births, especially male births, to mothers who lived in the area affected by the toxic release.
12 August 2014
Joanne Hsu, David Matsa, and Brian Melzer use differences in the unemployment insurance (UI) program rules across states to estimate how UI generosity affects the probability of mortgage default. They find a negative relationship between UI generosity and defaults, and estimate that the UI expansions during the Great Recession prevented about 1.4 million mortgage foreclosures. They also find that lenders responded to this decline in default risk by expanding credit access and reducing interest rates for low-income households at risk of being laid off.
11 August 2014
Solomon Hsiang and Amir Jina study how being hit by a tropical cyclone (referred to as a hurricane in North America) affects a nation's subsequent economic growth. They examine data from the 1950-2008 period, and find post-cyclone declines in the growth rate of national income, relative to its pre-disaster trend, that persist for up to twenty years. Both rich and poor countries exhibit this response, with losses magnified in countries with less historical cyclone experience.
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