Brexit: Likely Effects of Britain's Departure from EU
on Trade, the U.K., and European Integration

NBER BREXIT PANEL 2016 Sequence.01

Four leading economists discussed Brexit — the British decision to leave the European Union — at this year's National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute in Cambridge, MA. Jeffrey A. Frankel (above) of Harvard University and the NBER moderated.

New NBER Research

29 July 2016

The Liquidity Cost of Private Equity Investments

Using proprietary data from a leading intermediary in the private equity market, Taylor D. Nadauld, Berk A. Sensoy, Keith Vorkink, and Michael S. Weisbach find that most secondary market transactions occur at a discount to net asset value. The extent of the discount appears to be related to informational differences between buyers and sellers.

28 July 2016

Do Disaster Experience and Knowledge
Affect Insurance Take-up Decisions?

Hypothetical experience with disasters in a game setting increases the take-up of weather insurance policies by Chinese rice farmers by 9 percentage points, or 46 percent, according to a study by Jing Cai and Changcheng Song. Providing information about the true probability of disasters and the payout probability also has a strong positive effect on insurance uptake.

27 July 2016

The Gift of Moving:
Intergenerational Consequences of a Mobility Shock

Moving costs are high, so workers may not locate where they will earn the most. Emi Nakamura, Jósef Sigurdsson, and Jón Steinsson study the effects of a forced migration associated with the eruption of an Icelandic volcano on the earnings of displaced individuals. They find a substantial increase in the earnings and education of young displaced individuals, and a slight decline in earnings for older individuals.
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NBER in the News

NBER Macroeconomics
Annual 2015

Major trends and cycles in the Chinese economy, the large differences among countries in the effect of rising public debt, and the influence of CFOs' growth expectations on their firms' investments are among topics probed in the 30th volume of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual. Researchers also explore the network structure of the U.S. economy, the usefulness of household belief studies for understanding economic phenomena, and downward trends in unemployment and workforce participation. Edited by Martin Eichenbaum and Jonathan A. Parker. Just published by The University of Chicago Press.

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This Week's Working Papers

New in the NBER Digest

Why So Many Investors Believe Trouble's Ahead

Investors wildly overestimate the likelihood of severe stock market crashes, a belief that is correlated with the tendency of financial media to devote more coverage to market downturns than to upswings, according to research summarized in the July edition of The NBER Digest. Also featured in this month's edition are studies of "pay to delay" settlements in patent litigation, Indian farmers' gains from trade, the effects of illiquidity in the financial crisis, the regulatory structure that undermines utilities' incentives to plug natural gas leaks, and the depopulation of the 1930s Dust Bowl.

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New in The NBER Reporter

Costs and Benefits of Abating Pollution
and Promoting Energy Efficiencies

Researchers in the NBER's Environment and Energy Economics program are probing policies and conditions that affect greenhouse gas emissions, energy efficiency, and oil and gas production. An overview of the work by Don Fullerton and Catherine Wolfram is the lead report in The NBER Reporter, 2016:2. Other articles in the quarterly Reporter investigate how economic shocks affect spending, examine firms' response to changes in taxation, explore the purpose of trade agreements, and trace the evolution of gender gaps in developed economies.

Tax Policy and the Economy

The effect of state-level fiscal policies on neighboring states, the welfare consequences of tax-policy changes, and the increase in pass-through businesses are among topics explored by NBER researchers in volume 30 of the Tax Policy and the Economy series. Edited by Jeffrey R. Brown, it is now available from The University of Chicago Press.

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