New NBER Research
11 December 2013
Nicholas Bloom examines the variation in uncertainty over time and the economic consequences of this variation. He concludes that the jump in economic uncertainty in 2008 potentially accounted for about one third of the drop in GDP during the Great Recession.
10 December 2013
Lance Lochner, Todd Stinebrickner, and Utku Suleymanoglu study repayment patterns for the Canada Student Loan Program. They find that nearly all recent borrowers with annual incomes above $40,000 make standard loan repayments, while borrowers with incomes below $20,000 frequently experience repayment problems. Nevertheless, over half of low-income borrowers make timely payments; savings and family support are the most important sources of these payments.
9 December 2013
Martin Schmalz, David Sraer, and David Thesmar study the importance of home equity as a source of collateral for entrepreneurs starting new businesses. They compare the rate of new business formation in different local housing markets with different house price trajectories. In markets with large house price gains, in which homeowners have more housing equity than in less-appreciated markets, homeowners are substantially more likely than renters to become entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurs with more accumulated home equity also create larger firms, and more long-lived firms, on average.
6 December 2013
Andreas Mueller, Jesse Rothstein, and Till von Wachter exploit cross-state variation in the pattern of unemployment insurance (UI) benefit extensions during the recent recession to investigate whether UI exhaustion raises the probability that an unemployed individual applies for disability insurance (DI). They find no evidence that the unemployed turn to the DI system after their UI benefits expire.
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5 December 2013
Andrés Fernández, Alessandro Rebucci, and Martín Uribe study the imposition of capital controls by a large number of countries during the 1995-2011 period. They find that movements in capital controls are largely unaffected by boom-bust cycles in national output, by real exchange rate fluctuations, and by movements in the current account. In particular, it does not appear that firms impose capital controls during economic booms.
4 December 2013
Sari Pekkala Kerr, William Kerr, and William Lincoln examine how rising employment of skilled immigrants affects a firm's demand for native workers. Using matched firm-worker data, they document increases in the total number of skilled workers employed at firms that employ rising numbers of skilled immigrants.
3 December 2013
Kerry Back, Tao Li, and Alexander Ljungqvist find a negative relationship between the liquidity of the market for a company's stock and the activism of the investors who hold large blocks of its stock. They hypothesize that greater liquidity makes it easier for large investors to sell their shares, which is an alternative to trying to work internally to improve corporate performance.
2 December 2013
Ajay Agrawal, John McHale, and Alexander Oettl report that the concentration of research output, measured by citation-weighted publications, declined across university departments within fields, but increased across researchers, between 1980 and 2000. In evolutionary biology, for example, the share of research generated by the top fifth of departments declined from 75 to 60 percent, while the share produced by the top 20 percent of biologists rose from 70 to 80 percent. They attribute at least part of this change to variation in patterns of collaboration.
27 November 2013
Carmen Reinhart and Takeshi Tashiro compare financial flows in nine Asian economies over the 1998-2012 period, the fifteen years after the Asian financial crisis, with similar flows in these countries in the decade before the crisis. They find that the average investment to GDP ratio fell by 6 percentage points, 9 percentage points when India and China are excluded, and that both the public and private sectors became more reliant on domestic sources of finance after the crisis. They also observe that central bank reserve accumulation after the crisis often placed central banks in competition with private borrowers in the market for loanable funds.
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