NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH


New in the NBER
Bulletin on Aging and Health

How Population Aging
Will Affect U.S. Growth


Bulletin The share of the U.S. population age 60 and above is expected to rise by 40 percent between 2010 and 2050. The authors of a study featured in the latest edition of the NBER Bulletin on Aging and Health find that a 10 percent increase in the share of the population that is age 60 and above decreases growth in GDP per capita by 5.5 percent. Other studies summarized in this issue of the Bulletin analyze insurance coverage under the Affordable Care Act and changes in health life spans.

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New NBER Research

26 September 2016

Open Market Operations During the Great Depression

An open-market operation undertaken by the Federal Reserve in 1932, at the height of the Great Depression, entailing purchases of medium- and long-term securities, dramatically lowered medium- and long-term Treasury yields, according to Michael Bordo and Arunima Sinha. They find that this open-market purchase operation was more effective in stimulating output growth than the qualitative easing strategy the Fed used in the most recent financial crisis.

23 September 2016

Financial Aid, Debt Management, and Socioeconomic
Outcomes: Post-College Effects of Merit-based Aid

Linking college transcripts, financial aid information, and later-life credit bureau data of West Virginia’s WV PROMISE scholarship recipients and similar students who did not receive scholarships, Judith Scott-Clayton and Basit Zafar find that recipients are more likely to earn a graduate degree, more likely to own a home and live in higher-income neighborhoods, and more likely to be in better overall financial health.

22 September 2016

The Effect of Unconventional Fiscal Policy
on Consumption Expenditure in Germany

In November 2005, Germany announced an unexpected 3-percentage point increase in the value added tax. Francesco D’Acunto, Daniel Hoang, and Michael Weber find that this increased households' inflation expectations in 2006 and actual inflation in 2007, and raised German consumers' willingness to purchase durables by 34 percent.
More Research


The 2016 Economics Methods Lectures:
Matching Markets and Market Design



Each year at the NBER Summer Institute, leading practitioners in a specialized area of economics explain what they do and how they do it, and the NBER makes their presentations available to the public. Al Roth (above) won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 2012 for his pioneering work in market design. This summer, he led a group which delivered five lectures on the theory and practice of game theory, market design, and matching markets. The full presentations may be viewed and downloaded on the Summer Institute 2016 Methods Lectures page.

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This Week's Working Papers



New in the NBER Digest

A Legal Ivory Sale Increased
Smuggling and Poaching in Africa




Following a one-time legal sale, black market production of ivory expanded by an estimated 66 percent, according to a study featured in the September edition of the NBER Digest. Also in this month's issue are a comparison of credit controls and monetary policy in the United Kingdom during the mid-20th century, a look at how "means testing" Social Security differs by method of implementation, an investigation of how tax incentives affected firms' research and development efforts in the U.K, a study of how credit card companies vary offers to different customers, and an analysis of the effect of pollution on worker productivity in China.

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New in the NBER Reporter

Why Have Governments Needed Trade Agreements,
and Have Those Needs Changed with the Times?




Eliminating the cost-shifting behavior associated with the terms-of-trade externality has been the sole rationale for a trade agreement in imperfectly competitive settings, Kyle Bagwell and Robert W. Staiger write in an article on their research in The NBER Reporter. But the rise of offshoring and global supply chains may be creating new problems for trade agreements to address. Other articles in the quarterly Reporter trace the evolution of gender gaps in developed economies, give an overview of research in the NBER's Environmental and Energy Economics program, examine how consumers react to economic shocks, and analyze how firms respond to changes in taxation.

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Tax Policy and the Economy



The effect of state-level fiscal policies on neighboring states, the welfare consequences of tax-policy changes, and the increase in pass-through businesses are among topics explored by NBER researchers in volume 30 of the Tax Policy and the Economy series. Edited by Jeffrey R. Brown, it is now available from The University of Chicago Press.









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