The NBER Reporter 2012 Number 3: Conferences

Twenty-third Annual EASE Conference

The NBER, the Australian National University, the China Center for Economic Research, the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, the Korea Development Institute, the National University of Singapore, and the Tokyo Center for Economic Research jointly sponsored the NBER's 23rd Annual East Asian Seminar on Economics. It took place on June 15 and 16, 2012 at National Taiwan University. Takatoshi Ito, University of Tokyo and NBER, and Andrew K. Rose, University of California, Berkeley and NBER, organized the conference, which focused on "Employment and Growth." These papers were discussed:

    Margaret S. McMillan, Tufts University and NBER, and Dani Rodrik, Harvard University and NBER, "Globalization, Structural Change, and Productivity Growth" (NBER Working Paper No. 17143)

    Julen Esteban-Pretel, GRIPS; Ryo Nakajima, Yokohama National University; and Ryuichi Tanaka, Tokyo Institute of Technology, "Changes in Japan's Labor Market Flows due to the Lost Decade"

    Stacey Chen, Academia Sinica, "Long-Term Changes in the Wage Structure of Taiwan"

    Mei Hsu, National Taipei University, and Been-Lon Chen, Academia Sinica, "Why Do Immigrants Earn So Much More Than Natives in Taiwan?"

    Pengfei Wang and Lifang Xu, Hong Kong University of Science & Technology, and Jianjun Miao, Boston University, "Stock Market Bubbles and Unemployment"

    Kaoru Hosono, Gakushuin University, and Miho Takizawa, Toyo University, "Financial Frictions, Misallocation, and Plant-Size Distribution"

    Yupeng Lin, Takeshi Yamada, and Anand Srinivasan, National University of Singapore, "The Bright Side of State Owned Bank Lending: Evidence from Japan"

    Catherine Wolfram, University of California at Berkeley and NBER; Paul J. Gertler and Orie Shelef, University of California at Berkeley; and Alan Fuchs, United Nations Development Programme, "Poverty, Growth and the Demand for Energy"

    Jakob B. Madsen, Monash University, "Health, Human Capital Formation, and Knowledge Production"

    Meng-Chun Liu and Shin-Horng Chen, CIER, "Contribution of Taiwan's R&D Investment to Employment"

    Loukas Karabarbounis and Brent Neiman, University of Chicago and NBER, "Declining Labor Shares and the Global Rise of Corporate Savings"

    Sanghoon Ahn, Korea Development Institute, "Employment and Productivity Dynamics in Korea: An Analysis of Establishment-Level Micro Data"

    Xiaoyan Lei, CCER, "The Retirement Patterns in China"

Summaries of these papers may be found here.

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35th International Seminar on Macroeconomics

NBER's 35th International Seminar on Macroeconomics (ISOM) took place on June 15 and 16, 2012 at the University of Oslo. NBER Research Associate Francesco Giavazzi, Bocconi University, and Kenneth West, University of Wisconsin, organized this year's program. The following papers were discussed:

    Olivier Jeanne, Johns Hopkins University and NBER, "Capital Account Policies and the Real Exchange Rate"

    Hideaki Hirata, Hosei University; M. Ayhan Kose and Marco Terrones, International Monetary Fund; and Christopher Otrok, University of Missouri, "Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants"

    Tanya Molodtsova, Emory University, and David Papell, University of Houston, "Taylor Rule Exchange Rate Forecasting During the Financial Crisis"

    Nicolas Berman, Graduate Institute of International & Development Studies; José De Sousa, Paris-Sud 11 University; and Philippe Martin and Thierry Mayer, Sciences-Po, "Time to Ship during Financial Crises"

    Christophe Chamley, Paris School of Economics, and Brian Pinto, The World Bank, "Official Bailouts of Sovereigns: Seniority, Catalytic Effects, and Insolvency"

    Luca Sala and Antonella Trigari, Bocconi University, and Ulf Soderstrom, Sveriges Riksbank, "Structural and Cyclical Forces in the Great Recession: Cross-Country Evidence"

    Luca Guerrieri and Matteo Iacoviello, Federal Reserve Board, and Raoul Minetti, Michigan State University, "Banks, Sovereign Debt, and the International Transmission of Business Cycles"

    Alessandra Fogli and Enoch Hill, University of Minnesota, and Fabrizio Perri, University of Minnesota and NBER, "The Geography of the Great Recession"

Summaries of these papers may be found here.

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Universities-Research Conference on Insurance Markets and Catastrophe Risk

The NBER's Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar tackled the topic of business taxation this year. The group met on June 20-22, 2012 at Oxford University. Organizers Michael Devereux, Oxford University, and Roger Gordon, University of California at San Diego and NBER, chose these papers for discussion:

    Florian Scheuer, Stanford University and NBER, "Entrepreneurial Taxation and Occupational Choice"

    Stefania Albanesi, Columbia University and NBER, "Optimal Taxation of Entrepreneurial Capital with Private Information"

    Clemens Fuest and Giogia Maffini, Oxford University, and Nadine Riedel, University of Hohenheim, "What Determines Corporate Tax Payments in Developing Countries? Evidence from Firm Panel Data"

    Harry Huizinga and Wolf Wagner, Tilburg University, and Johannes Voget, University of Mannheim, "International Taxation and Cross-Border Banking"

    Michael Devereux and Li Liu, Oxford University, and Simon Loretz, University of Bayreuth, "Using Tax Reforms and Tax Return Data to Identify the Effects of Tax and Cash Flow on the Investment of Small Companies"

    Jesse Edgerton, Federal Reserve Board, "Investment, Accounting, and the Salience of the Corporate Income Tax"

    Jarkko Harju and Tuomas Kosonen, Government Institute for Economic Research, Helsinki, "The Impact of Tax Incentives on Economic Activity of Entrepreneurs"

    Tobias Boehm, University of Muenster; Tom Karkinsky, University of Oxford CBT; and Nadine Riedel, University of Hohenheim, "The Impact of Corporate Taxes on R&D and Patent Holdings"

    Laura Kawano, Department of the Treasury, and Joel Slemrod, University of Michigan and NBER, "The Effect of Tax Rates and Tax Bases on Corporate Tax Revenues: Estimates with New Measures of the Corporate Tax Base"

    James R. Hines, University of Michigan and NBER, and Jongsang Park, University of Michigan, "Investment Ramifications of Distortionary Tax Subsidies"

    Peter Egger, Federal Institute of Technology Zurich; Christian Keuschnigg, University of St.Gallen; and Valeria Merlo and Georg Wamser, ETH Zurich, "Corporate Taxes and Internal Borrowing within Multinational Firms"

    Bruce Blonigen, University of Oregon and NBER; Lindsay Oldenski, Georgetown University; and Nicholas Sly, University of Oregon, "Separating the Opposing Effects of Bilateral Tax Treaties"

Summaries of these papers may be available here.

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NBER Conference in China

The fourteenth annual NBER-CCER Conference on China and the World Economy took place at the China Center for Economic Research (CCER) in Beijing on June 25 - 26, 2012. The conference program was jointly arranged by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the CCER at Beijing University, and Tsinghua University. After opening remarks by James Poterba of NBER and MIT, Yang Yao of CCER, and Chong- En Bai of Tsinghua University, the following topics were discussed:


    Justin Yifu Lin, CCER, "China and the World Economy"

    Martin Feldstein, NBER and Harvard, "The Future of the U.S. Economy"

    David Li, Tsinghua University, "The Outlook for the Chinese Economy"

    Alan Auerbach, NBER and University of California, Berkeley, "Long-term Fiscal Issues"


    Caroline Hoxby, NBER and Stanford University, "The Economics of Education"

    Xinzheng Shi, Tsinghua University, "High School Quality and Academic Performance in China"

    International Economics

    Yang Yao, CCER, "Differential Growth Rates and Global Imbalances"

    Shang-Jin Wei, NBER and Columbia University, "Underappreciated Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate"

    Miaojie Yu, CCER, "Export Intensity and Trade Liberalization"

    Savings and Retirement

    Brigitte Madrian, NBER and Harvard University, "Behavioral Economics of Savings"

    Yaohui Zhao, CCER, "Patterns of Retirement in China"

    David Wise, NBER and Harvard University, "The Economics of Retirement"

    Ho-mou Wu, CCER, "China's Local Government Debt"

    Fiscal Policy

    Lei Zhang, Tsinghua University, "Social Security Taxation and Compliance"

    James Poterba, "U.S. Federal Tax Reform: Prospects and Possibilities"

    Lixing Li, CCER, "The Political Economy of Corporate Finance"

    Christine Wong, Oxford University, "Fiscal Federalism"

    Min Ouyang, Tsinghua University, "Property Taxes and Home Prices"

    Yu Liu, Guanghua School, "Disclosure and Efficiency in Noise-driven Markets"

After the CCER-NBER meeting, the NBER participants took part in two subsequent conferences, one in Xi'an, co-hosted with Northwest University, and one in Chengdu, co-hosted with the Southwestern University of Finance and Economics. These meetings were arranged in part to mark the thirtieth anniversary of a 1982 China visit by a delegation of NBER economists who were hosted by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

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The Microeconomics of New Deal Policy

An NBER Conference on "The Microeconomics of New Deal Policy", organized by Price Fishback, University of Arizona and NBER, took place in Cambridge on July 26 and 27, 2012. These papers were discussed:

    Shawn Kantor, University of California at Merced and NBER; Price Fishback; and John Wallis, University of Maryland and NBER, "Did the New Deal Solidify the 1932 Democratic Realignment?"

    Robert Fleck, Clemson University, "Why Did the Electorate Swing Between Parties during the Great Depression?"

    Charles Calomiris, Columbia University and NBER; Joseph Mason, Louisiana State University; Marc Weidenmier, Claremont McKenna College and NBER; and Katherine Bobroff, Harvard University, "The Effects of Reconstruction Finance Corporation Assistance on Michigan’s Banks’ Survival in the 1930s"

    Kris James Mitchener, Santa Clara University and NBER, and Gary Richardson, University of California at Irvine and NBER, "Skin in the Game? Leverage, Liability, and the Long-run Consequences of the New Deal Financial Legislation"

    Nicolas Ziebarth, Christopher Vickers, and Mark Chicu, Northwestern University, "Cementing the Case for Collusion under the National Recovery Administration"

    Jason Taylor, Central Michigan University, and Todd Neumann, University of Arizona and NBER, "The Effect of Institutional Regime Change Within the New Deal on Industrial Output and Labor Markets"

    Douglas Irwin, Dartmouth College and NBER, "Did the New Deal Expand U.S. Trade?"

    Jonathan Rose, Federal Reserve Board, and Kenneth Snowden, University of North Carolina, Greensboro and NBER, "The New Deal and the Origins of the Modern American Real Estate Loan Contract"

    Trevor Kollmann, La Trobe University, "New Deal Public Housing Projects and Their Impact on Local Communities"

    Carl Kitchens, University of Arizona, "Swat that Mosquito: Estimating the Decline of Malaria in Georgia 1937-1947"

    Briggs Depew, University of Arizona; Price Fishback; and Paul Rhode, University of Michigan and NBER, "New Deal or No Deal in the Cotton South: The Effect of the AAA on the Agriculture Labor Structure"

Summaries of these papers may be found here

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The Economics of Food Price Volatility

The NBER and the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association jointly organized a conference on "The Economics of Food Price Volatility", which took place in Seattle, Washington on August 15 and 16, 2012. NBER Director Jean-Paul Chavas of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, NBER Research Associate David Hummels of Purdue University, and Brian Wright of the University of California, Berkeley, organized the meeting. These papers were discussed:

    Carlo Cafiero, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, "What Do We Really Know about Food Security?"

    Christophe Gouel, World Bank, "Food Price Volatility and Domestic Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries"

    Quy-Toan Do and Martin Ravallion, The World Bank, and Andrei A. Levchenko, University of Michigan and NBER, "Coping with Food Price Volatility: Trade Insulation as Social Protection"

    Kym Anderson, University of Adelaide, and Maros Ivanic and Will Martin, The World Bank, "Food Price Spikes, Price Insulation, and Poverty"

    Steven T. Berry, Yale University and NBER; Michael J. Roberts, North Carolina State University; and Wolfram Schlenker, Columbia University and NBER, "Identifying Agricultural Demand and Supply Elasticities: Implications for Food Price Volatility"

    Julian M. Alston, University of California at Davis; Will Martin; and Phillip Pardey, University of Minnesota, "Influences of Agricultural Technology on the Size and Importance of Food Price Variability"

    Eugenio Bobenrieth, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile; Juan R.A. Bobenrieth, Universidad del Bío-Bío; and Brian Wright, "Bubble Trouble? Rational Storage, Mean Reversion, and Runs in Commodity Prices"

    Nicole Aulerich, Cornerstone Research, and Scott H. Irwin and Philip Garcia, University of Illinois, "Bubbles, Food Prices, and Speculation: Evidence from the CFTC’s Daily Large Trader Data Files"

    Walter Enders and Matthew T. Holt, University of Alabama, "The Evolving Relationships Between Agricultural and Energy Commodity Prices: A Shifting-Mean Vector Autoregressive Analysis"

    Philip Abbott, Purdue University, "Biofuels, Binding Constraints, and Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility"

Summaries of these papers are available here.

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Health, Education, and Welfare Programs in China

The NBER, Tsinghua University, and the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business jointly sponsored a conference on "Health, Education, and Welfare Programs in China" which took place at Tsinghua University on July 5-7, 2012. NBER Research Associate Roger Gordon of the University of California, San Diego, was the U. S. organizer. The following papers were discussed:

Shuang Zhang, Cornell University, "Long-term Effects of In Utero Exposure to Land Reform on Academic Performance in China"

Hui He, Kevin XD Huang, and Sheng-Ti Hung, University of Hawaii, "Are Recessions Good for Your Health? When Ruhn Meets GHH"

Shuang Zhang, "Mother's Education and Infant Health: Evidence from Closure of High Schools in China"

Karthik Muralidharan, University of California, San Diego and NBER, "Is There a Doctor in the House? Absent Medical Providers in India"

Gordon G Liu, Jay Pan, and Chen Gao, Peking University, "Separating Government Regulatory Roles from Operational Functions by Public Hospitals for Greater Supply Capacity"

Chen Gao, Fei Xu, and Gordon G Liu, Peking University, "Payment Reform and Changes in Health Care in China"

Mingming Ma, Binzhen Wu, and Xiaohan Zhong, Tsinghua University, "Matching Mechanisms and Matching Quality: Evidence from China"

Belton Fleisher, Ohio State University; Haizheng Li, Georgia Institute of Technology; Shi Li, Beijing Normal University; and Xiaojun Wang, University of Hawaii, "Access to Higher Education and Inequality: The Chinese Experience"

Han Li and Jiaxin Xie, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, "Can Conditional Grants Attract Better Students: Evidence from Chinese Normal Universities"

Binzhen Wu and Xiaohan Zhong, Tsinghua University, "College Admission Mechanism and Matching Quality: An Empirical Study of China"

Raj Chetty and John Friedman, Harvard University and NBER, and Jonah Rockoff, Columbia University and NBER, "The Long-Term Impacts of Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood" (NBER Working Paper No. 17699)

Cheng Yuan and Lei Zhang, Tsinghua University, "Public School Spending and Private Substitution in Urban China"

Monica Martínez-Bravo, Johns Hopkins University; Gerard Padró i Miquel, London School of Economics; Nancy Qian, Yale University and NBER; and Yang Yao, Peking University, "The Effects of Village Elections on Public Goods and Redistribution: Evidence from China"(NBER Working Paper No. 18101)

Yuyu Chen and Guang Shi, Peking University; Ginger Zhe Jin, University of Maryland and NBER; and Naresh Kumar, University of Miami, "Gaming in Air Pollution Data? Lessons from China"

Jie Mao, Lei Zhang, and Jing Zhao, Tsinghua University, "Tax Rate and Compliance: Evidence from the Social Security Pension System in China"

Douglas Almond, Columbia University and NBER, and Hongbin Li and Lingsheng Meng, Tsinghua University, "Son Preference and Early Childhood Investments in China"

Summaries of these papers are available here.

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