Skip to main content

National Bureau of Economic Research

Conducting and disseminating nonpartisan economic research

Latest from the NBER

From the NBER Bulletin on Entrepreneurship

Underwriting Based on Cash Flow Helps Younger Entrepreneurs Access Credit

Underwriting Based on Cash Flow Helps Younger Entrepreneurs Access Credit

article

Younger entrepreneurs are disadvantaged in small business loan markets because lenders rely heavily on personal credit scores, which favor long histories of repaying debt. In Modernizing Access to Credit for Younger Entrepreneurs: From FICO to Cash Flow (NBER Working Paper 33367), researchers Christopher M. HairSabrina T. HowellMark J. Johnson, and Siena Matsumoto document this fact and show that younger entrepreneurs benefit from underwriting that augments personal credit scores (like FICO) with cash flow data. They analyze comprehensive…

A research summary from the monthly NBER Digest

Expelling Japanese Americans Lowered US Farm Productivity Primary figure

Expelling Japanese Americans Lowered US Farm Productivity

article

The expulsion of Japanese Americans from western states during World War II upended nearly 120,000 lives, including those of nearly 22,000 agricultural workers, and set back farming in affected regions for several decades. Citing security concerns in the wake of the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, the US government in spring 1942 declared that all individuals of Japanese ancestry, regardless of citizenship status, were subject to mandatory removal from all of California and parts of Washington, Oregon, and Arizona. Most were eventually resettled in internment camps. At the end of the war, fewer than half of the internees returned to their original states, and fewer still reclaimed their farms or returned to agriculture.

In How the 1942 Japanese Exclusion Impacted US Agriculture (NBER Working Paper 33971), Peter Zhixian Lin and Giovanni Peri show that Japanese Americans...

From the NBER Reporter: Research, program, and conference summaries

The Economics of Counterfeiting Figure

The Economics of Counterfeiting

article

Intellectual property (IP) rights and counterfeiting have permeated everyday lives as globalization, technological advancement, and AI flourish. Interbrand estimates that the brand value of Louis Vuitton was $26.3 billion in 2023, as an example of the IP value of brands. The values brands possess generate incentives for counterfeiting and imitation. Counterfeiting cuts across countries and industries. Notably, counterfeit footwear has topped the seizure list of the US customs service for four years, accounting for nearly 40 percent of total seizures.1 The origins, impacts, and remedies of counterfeits and the protection of IP are pertinent topics to ...

From the NBER Bulletin on Health

Addressing Common Misconceptions About the Child Mental Health Crisis

Addressing Common Misconceptions About the Child Mental Health Crisis

article

The US Surgeon General has called the child mental health crisis “the defining public health crisis of our time.” In 2020, 13 percent of US children aged 3 to 17 had a diagnosed mental or behavioral condition. In 2021, mental health services for children cost $31 billion—47 percent of pediatric medical spending. Childhood mental health issues are linked to lower educational attainment, reduced employment, and increased use of welfare programs. Also, youth suicide rates are especially high in the US; males aged 15 to 19 have a rate four times higher than in France. In Investing in Children to Address the Child Mental Health Crisis (NBER Working Paper 33632), Janet Currie explores three common misconceptions about this youth mental health...

Featured Working Papers

After Texas HB-2 clinic closures in 2013, counties experiencing travel distance increases of 100 or more miles to the nearest abortion provider saw a 14.9 percent increase in property crimes, mostly from financially motivated offenses like motor vehicle theft and burglary, according to Erkmen G. AslimWei FuCaitlin K. MyersErdal Tekin, and Bingjin Xue.

Following major AI model releases in 2023–2024, long-term US Treasury yields declined by over 10 basis points and remained lower for weeks, a finding consistent with investors expecting lower consumption growth or a lower probability of AI-related tail events, according to Isaiah Andrews and Maryam Farboodi.

Uditi KarnaJohn A. ListAndrew Simon, and Haruka Uchida find that first-generation college students are 17 percentage points less likely to reach the top 10 percent of academic achievement by 3rd grade, and 19 percent less likely by 8th.  Only about one-third of this disparity can be explained by socioeconomic status and school quality differences.

Hourly US workers experience substantial month-to-month earnings fluctuations even within ongoing employment relationships, with median monthly pay changes of 9 percent, according to Peter GanongPascal J. NoelChristina PattersonJoseph S. Vavra, and Alexander Weinberg.

Research and development for new uses of existing drugs drops by 95 percent after generic entry makes patents unenforceable, reducing the number of repurposing opportunities that are discovered, according to Eric BudishMaya M. DurvasulaBenjamin N. Roin, and Heidi L. Williams.

View all

Books & Chapters

Through a partnership with the University of Chicago Press, the NBER publishes the proceedings of four annual conferences as well as other research studies associated with NBER-based research projects.

Videos

Recordings of presentations, keynote addresses, and panel discussions at NBER conferences are available on the Videos page.

Video
Supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation grant #G-2023-19618 and Microsoft 
Video
Supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation grant #G-2023-19618 and Microsoft
Video
Supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation grant #G-2023-19618 and Microsoft
Video
Supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation grant #G-2023-19618 and Microsoft
Video
Supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation grant #G-2023-19618 and Microsoft
Sign-Up for New This Week: The Weekly Announcement of New NBER Working Papers
Learn More about NBER Research Activities