TY  - JOUR
AU  - Kennan,John
AU  - Walker,James R.
TI  - The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 9585
PY  - 2003
Y2  - March 2003
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w9585
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w9585.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
John Kennan
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Tel: 608/262-5393
Fax: 608/263-3876
E-Mail: jkennan@ssc.wisc.edu

James R. Walker
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin-Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Tel: 608/263-3863
Fax: 608/262-2033
E-Mail: walker@ssc.wisc.edu
AB  - The paper develops a tractable econometric model of optimal migration, focusing on expected income as the main economic influence on migration. The model improves on previous work in two respects: it covers optimal sequences of location decisions (rather than a single once-for-all choice), and it allows for many alternative location choices. The model is estimated using panel data from the NLSY on white males with a high school education. Our main conclusion is that interstate migration decisions are influenced to a substantial extent by income prospects. The results suggest that the link between income and migration decisions is driven both by geographic differences in mean wages and by a tendency to move in search of a better locational match when the income realization in the current location is unfavorable.
ER  -