NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Demographic and Economic Pressure on Emigration Out of Africa

Timothy J. Hatton, Jeffrey G. Williamson

NBER Working Paper No. 8124
Issued in February 2001
NBER Program(s):   ITI   LS

Two of the main forces driving European emigration in the late nineteenth century were real wage gaps between sending and receiving regions and demographic booms in the low-wage sending regions (directly augmenting the supply of potential movers as well as indirectly making already-measured employment conditions less attractive). These two features are even more prominent in Africa today, but do or can Africans respond to them with the same elasticity as in the days of 'free' migration? Our new estimates of net migration and labor market performance for the countries of sub-Saharan Africa suggest that exactly the same forces are at work driving African across-border migration today. Rapid growth in the cohort of young potential migrants, population pressure on the resource base, and poor economic performance are the main forces driving African migration. A century ago, more modest demographic forces in Europe were accompanied by strong catching-up economic growth in the low-wage emigrant regions, followed by a slowdown in already-modest demographic growth. Yet, migrations were still mass. In Africa today, economic growth has faltered, its economies have fallen further behind the high-wage OECD leaders, and there is a demographic speed up in the making. Our estimates suggest that the pressure on emigration out of Africa will intensify, manifested in part by a growing demand for entrance into high-wage OECD labor markets.

download in pdf format
   (157 K)

email paper

This paper is available as PDF (157 K) or via email.

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w8124

Published:

  • as "Out Of Africa? Using The Past To Project African Emigration Pressure In The Future," Review of International Economics, Vol. 10, no. 3 (August 2002): 556-573 ,
  • Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 105, no. 3 (September 2003): 465-486

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded these:
Hatton and Williamson w9159 What Fundamentals Drive World Migration?
Grogger and Hanson w13821 Income Maximization and the Selection and Sorting of International Migrants
Banerjee, Galiani, Levinsohn, McLaren, and Woolard w13167 Why Has Unemployment Risen in the New South Africa
Taylor and Williamson w4711 "Convergence in the Age of Mass Migration"
Hatton and Williamson w14785 Vanishing Third World Emigrants?
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Data
People
About

Support
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us