NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Timothy J. Hatton

RSSS -Economics
Australian National University
Canberra ACT 0200, Australia

E-Mail: tim.hatton@anu.edu.au

NBER Working Papers and Publications

March 2009Vanishing Third World Emigrants?
with Jeffrey G. Williamson: w14785
This paper documents a stylized fact not well appreciated in the literature. The Third World has been undergoing an emigration life cycle since the 1960s, and, except for Africa, emigration rates have been level or even declining since a peak in the late 1980s and the early 1990s. The current economic crisis will serve only to accelerate those trends. The paper estimates the economic and demographic fundamentals driving these Third World emigration life cycles to the United States since 1970 -- the income gap between the US and the sending country, the education gap between the US and the sending country, the poverty trap, the size of the cohort at risk, and migrant stock dynamics. It then projects the life cycle up to 2024. The projections imply that pressure on Third World emigration ove...
January 2003International Migration and the Integration of Labor Markets
with Barry Chiswick
in Globalization in Historical Perspective, Michael D. Bordo, Alan M. Taylor and Jeffrey G. Williamson, editors
 
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