TY  - JOUR
AU  - Keller,Klaus
AU  - Tan,Kelvin
AU  - Morel,Francois M.M.
AU  - Bradford,David F.
TI  - Preserving the Ocean Circulation: Implications for Climate Policy
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 7476
PY  - 2000
Y2  - January 2000
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w7476
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w7476.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Klaus Keller
E-Mail: kzk10@psu.edu

Kelvin Tan

David F. Bradford
Woodrow Wilson School
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ 08544-1013
Tel: 609/258-1856
Fax: 609/258-2809
E-Mail: BRADFORD@PRINCETON.EDU
AB  - Climate modelers have recognized the possibility of abrupt climate changes caused by a reorganization of the North Atlantic's current pattern (technically known as a thermohaline circulation collapse). This circulation system now warms north-western Europe and transports carbon dioxide to the deep oceans. The posited collapse of this system could produce severe cooling in north-western Europe, even when general global warming is in progress. In this paper we use a simple integrated assessment model to investigate the optimal policy response to this risk. Adding the constraint of avoiding a thermohaline circulation collapse would significantly reduce the allowable greenhouse gas emissions in the long run along an optimal path. Our analysis implies that relatively small damages associated with a collapse (less than 1 % of gross world product) would justify a considerable reduction of future carbon dioxide emissions.
ER  -