NBER Working Papers and Publications
|January 2000||Preserving the Ocean Circulation: Implications for Climate Policy|
with Kelvin Tan, Francois M.M. Morel, David F. Bradford: w7476
Climate modelers have recognized the possibility of abrupt climate changes caused by a reorganization of the North Atlantic's current pattern (technically known as a thermohaline circulation collapse). This circulation system now warms north-western Europe and transports carbon dioxide to the deep oceans. The posited collapse of this system could produce severe cooling in north-western Europe, even when general global warming is in progress. In this paper we use a simple integrated assessment model to investigate the optimal policy response to this risk. Adding the constraint of avoiding a thermohaline circulation collapse would significantly reduce the allowable greenhouse gas emissions in the long run along an optimal path. Our analysis implies that relatively small damages associated wi...
Published: Keller, Klaus, Kelvin Tan, François M. M. Morel, and David F. Bradford. "Preserving the Ocean Circulation: Implications for Climate Policy." Climatic Change 47, 1-2 (October 2000): 17-43.