NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Predictors of Mortality Among the Elderly

Michael Hurd, Daniel McFadden, Angela Merrill

NBER Working Paper No. 7440
Issued in December 1999
NBER Program(s):   AG

The objective of this paper is to find the quantitative importance of some predictors of mortality among the population aged 70 or over. The predictors are socio-economic indicators (income, wealth and education), thirteen health indicators including a history of heart attack or cancer, and subjective probabilities of survival. The estimation is based on mortality between waves 1 and 2 of the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest-Old study. We find that the relationship between socio-economic indicators and mortality declines with age 13 health indicators are strong predictors of mortality and that the subjective survival probabilities predict mortality even after controlling for socio-economic indicators and the health conditions.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w7440

Published: Predictors of Mortality among the Elderly, Michael D. Hurd, Daniel McFadden, Angela Merrill. in Themes in the Economics of Aging, Wise. 2001

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