Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of the AIDS Epidemic
NBER Working Paper No. 5428
Increased HIV risk creates incentives for people with low sexual activity to reduce their activity, but may make high-activity people fatalistic, leading them to reduce their activity only slightly, or actually increase it. If high-activity people reduce their activity by a smaller proportion than low-activity people, the composition of the pool of available partners will worsen, creating positive feedbacks, and possibly multiple steady state levels of prevalence. The timing of public health efforts may affect long-run HIV prevalence.
Published: The Quarterly Journal Of Economics, Volume CXI, Issue 2 (May 1996): 549-573.