TY  - JOUR
AU  - Kremer,Michael
TI  - Can Having Fewer Partners Increase Prevalence of Aids?
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 4942
PY  - 1994
Y2  - December 1994
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w4942
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w4942.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Michael Kremer
Harvard University
Department of Economics
Littauer Center M20
Cambridge, MA 02138
Tel: 617/495-9145
Fax: 617/495-7730
E-Mail: mkremer@fas.harvard.edu
AB  - Under asymmetric information about sexual history, sexual activity creates externalities.  Abstinence by those with few partners perversely increases the average probability of HIV infection in the pool of available partners.  Since this increases prevalence among the high activity people who disproportionately influence the disease's future spread, it may increase long-run prevalence.  Preliminary calculations using standard epidemiological models and survey data on sexual activity suggest that most people have few enough partners that further reductions would increase steady-state prevalence.  To the extent the results prove robust, they suggest that public health messages will be more likely to reduce steady-state prevalence and create positive externalities if they stress condom use rather than abstinence.
ER  -