College Affirmative Action and Students' Outcomes: A Matter of the Dose

Extensive discussion centers around the question of whether affirmative action (AA) in higher education “works,” despite AA being in practice a continuous policy instrument. We study the dose effects of AA on its intended beneficiaries by exploiting the ethnic minority bonus-point policy in China's centralized college admissions system, where targeted students receive explicit point advantages. Exploring cohort-level fluctuations in exam score distributions that generate plausibly exogenous variation in the effective dose of AA, we show that higher AA doses increase recipients' admissions to colleges and elite colleges, but lower their academic rankings, shift them toward lower-earning majors, and reduce their satisfaction with college life. From data linking college entrance exam (CEE) records to comprehensive card transaction records 10–23 years after CEE, we find that low AA doses increase long-term consumption by 19% but high doses reduce it by 25%. Such non-monotonic dose responses exist across expenditure categories, including child-related expenditure, suggesting potential impacts on future generations. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that while the positive effects of low AA doses persist across student groups, students from stronger academic backgrounds are more resilient to the negative effects of high AA doses. Overall, our results suggest that careful calibration of AA policies is crucial for achieving their intended goals.