Identification of Marginal Treatment Effects using Subjective Expectations

Caplin thanks the Nomis and the Sloan Foundation for support. Leth-Petersen is grateful for financial support from the Independent Research Fund Denmark and CEBI. Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI) is a center of excellence at the University of Copenhagen financed by grant DNRF134 from the Danish National Research Foundation. We have benefited from discussions with Julie Cullen, Gordon Dahl, Rebecca Diamond, Matthew Gentzkow, Lihua Lei, Magne Mogstad, David Ritzwoller, Brad Ross, and Alex Torgovitsky. We thank seminar participants at many universities, conferences, and research centers for useful comments. The analysis and conclusions set forth here are those of the authors and do not necessarily indicate a concurrence by the Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., nor do they necessarily represent the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.