Biased Memory and Perceptions of Self-Control

Using field-experimental data on gym attendance, we analyze the relationship between imperfect memory and people’s awareness of their limited self-control. We develop a model that generates predictions about how imperfect recall is linked to forecasts and demand for behavior change, and we develop techniques for testing whether recall is selective. Empirically, we find that people overestimate both past and future attendance, and are more likely to recall attendances than absences. Larger overestimation of past attendance is associated with (i) more overestimation of future attendance, (ii) a lower willingness to pay to motivate higher future attendance, and (iii) a smaller gap between goal and forecasted attendance. Additionally, we find suggestive evidence that memory is motivated. We link biased memory to structural estimates of quasi-hyperbolic discounting with naivete.