NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
loading...

Adaptation and the Mortality Effects of Temperature Across U.S. Climate Regions

Garth Heutel, Nolan H. Miller, David Molitor

NBER Working Paper No. 23271
Issued in March 2017, Revised in July 2018
NBER Program(s):Environment and Energy Economics, Health Care

Using 20 years of data on Medicare beneficiaries, we predict the end-of-century mortality effects of climate change among the U.S. elderly, accounting at the ZIP code level for both adaptation and regional heterogeneity in the temperature-mortality relationship. We find that this relationship varies systematically with current climate, reflecting both beneficial adaptation to frequently-experienced temperatures and harmful de-adaptation to infrequently experienced temperatures. We model adaptation to future climate using the estimated cross-sectional heterogeneity in temperature effects and combine this with projected end-of-century changes in local temperature distributions to make mortality predictions. Incorporating regional heterogeneity into these predictions reverses the conventional wisdom on the regional distribution of climate change effects: cold places bear more, not less, of the burden. Incorporating adaptation yields mortality effects of climate change that are much lower than those estimated without incorporating adaptation.

download in pdf format
   (2020 K)

email paper

The NBER Bulletin on Aging and Health provides summaries of publications like this.  You can sign up to receive the NBER Bulletin on Aging and Health by email.

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w23271

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded* these:
Poterba, Venti, and Wise w23307 The Long Reach of Education: Health, Wealth, and DI Participation
Barrera-Osorio, Linden, and Saavedra w23275 Medium- and Long-Term Educational Consequences of Alternative Conditional Cash Transfer Designs: Experimental Evidence from Colombia
Nordhaus and Moffat w23646 A Survey of Global Impacts of Climate Change: Replication, Survey Methods, and a Statistical Analysis
Dave, Feng, and Pesko w23313 The Effects of E-Cigarette Minimum Legal Sale Age Laws on Youth Substance Use
Courtemanche, Marton, Ukert, Yelowitz, and Zapata w23269 Early Effects of the Affordable Care Act on Health Care Access, Risky Health Behaviors, and Self-Assessed Health
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Themes
Data
People
About

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us