NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Quantitative Trade Models: Developments and Challenges

Timothy J. Kehoe, Pau S. Pujolas, Jack Rossbach

NBER Working Paper No. 22706
Issued in September 2016, Revised in May 2017
NBER Program(s):   EFG   ITI

Applied general equilibrium (AGE) models, which feature multiple countries, multiple industries, and input-output linkages across industries, have been the dominant tool for evaluating the impact of trade reforms since the 1980s. We review how these models are used to perform policy analysis and document their shortcomings in predicting the industry-level effects of past trade reforms. We argue that, to improve their performance, AGE models need to incorporate product-level data on bilateral trade relations by industry and better model how trade reforms lower bilateral trade costs. We use the least traded products methodology of Kehoe et al. (2015) to provide guidance on how improvements can be made. We provide further suggestions on how AGE models can incorporate recent advances in quantitative trade theory to improve their predictive ability and better quantify the gains from trade liberalization.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w22706

Published: Timothy J. Kehoe & Pau S. Pujolàs & Jack Rossbach, 2017. "Quantitative Trade Models: Developments and Challenges," Annual Review of Economics, vol 9(1), pages 295-325. citation courtesy of

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