NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Jack Rossbach

Georgetown University Qatar
Department of Economics
Doha, Qatar

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NBER Working Papers and Publications

September 2016Quantitative Trade Models: Developments and Challenges
with Timothy J. Kehoe, Pau S. Pujolas: w22706
Applied general equilibrium (AGE) models, which feature multiple countries, multiple industries, and input-output linkages across industries, have been the dominant tool for evaluating the impact of trade reforms since the 1980s. We review how these models are used to perform policy analysis and document their shortcomings in predicting the industry-level effects of past trade reforms. We argue that, to improve their performance, AGE models need to incorporate product-level data on bilateral trade relations by industry and better model how trade reforms lower bilateral trade costs. We use the least traded products methodology of Kehoe et al. (2015) to provide guidance on how improvements can be made. We provide further suggestions on how AGE models can incorporate recent advances in q...

Published: Timothy J. Kehoe & Pau S. Pujolàs & Jack Rossbach, 2017. "Quantitative Trade Models: Developments and Challenges," Annual Review of Economics, vol 9(1), pages 295-325.

December 2013Using the New Products Margin to Predict the Industry-Level Impact of Trade Reform
with Timothy J. Kehoe, Kim J. Ruhl: w19692
This paper develops a methodology for predicting the impact of trade liberalization on exports by industry (3-digit ISIC) based on the pre-liberalization distribution of exports by product (5-digit SITC). Using the results of Kehoe and Ruhl (2013) that much of the growth in trade after trade liberalization is in products that are traded very little or not at all, we predict that industries with a higher share of exports generated by least traded products will experience more growth. Using our methodology, we develop predictions for industry-level changes in trade for the United States and Korea following the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS). As a test for our methodology, we show that it performs significantly better than the applied general equilibrium models originally used for...

Published: Kehoe, Timothy J. & Rossbach, Jack & Ruhl, Kim J., 2015. "Using the new products margin to predict the industry-level impact of trade reform," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 289-297. citation courtesy of

 
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