NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

China Pro-Growth Monetary Policy and Its Asymmetric Transmission

Kaiji Chen, Patrick Higgins, Daniel F. Waggoner, Tao Zha

NBER Working Paper No. 22650
Issued in September 2016
NBER Program(s):   EFG   IFM   ME   POL

China monetary policy, as well as its transmission, is yet to be understood by researchers and policymakers. In the spirit of Taylor (1993, 2000), we develop a tractable framework that approximates practical monetary policy of China. The framework, grounded in relevant institutional elements, allows us to quantify the policy effects on output and prices. We find strong evidence that monetary policy is designed to support real GDP growth mandated by the central government while resisting inflation pressures and that contributions of monetary policy shocks to the GDP fluctuation are asymmetric across different states of the economy. These findings highlight the role of M2 growth as a primary instrument and the bank lending channel to investment as a key transmission mechanism for monetary policy. Our analysis sheds light on institutional constraints on a gradual transition from M2 growth to the nominal policy interest rate as a primary instrument for monetary policy.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w22650

 
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