NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

The Permanent Effects of Fiscal Consolidations

Antonio Fatás, Lawrence H. Summers

NBER Working Paper No. 22374
Issued in June 2016, Revised in August 2016
NBER Program(s):EFG

The global financial crisis has permanently lowered the path of GDP in all advanced economies. At the same time, and in response to rising government debt levels, many of these countries have been engaging in fiscal consolidations that have had a negative impact on growth rates. We empirically explore the connections between these two facts by extending to longer horizons the methodology of Blanchard and Leigh (2013) regarding fiscal policy multipliers. Our results provide support for the presence of strong hysteresis effects of fiscal policy. The large size of the effects points in the direction of self-defeating fiscal consolidations as suggested by DeLong and Summers (2012). Attempts to reduce debt via fiscal consolidations have very likely resulted in a higher debt to GDP ratio through their long-term negative impact on output.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w22374

Forthcoming: The Permanent Effects of Fiscal Consolidations, Antonio Fatás, Lawrence Summers. in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2017, Frankel and Rey. 2017

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