Decision-Making under the Gambler's Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires

Corresponding author: Kelly Shue, University of Chicago and NBER, 5807 S Woodlawn Ave, Chicago, IL, 60601, (734) 834-0046, kelly.shue@chicagobooth.edu. We thank Dan Benjamin, John Campbell, Kent Daniel, Stefano Dellavigna, Andrea Frazzini, Radha Gopalan, Emir Kamenica, Adrien Matray, Sendhil Mullainathan, Josh Schwartzstein, Dick Thaler, Jeff Zwiebel, three anonymous referees, and Andrei Shleifer (the editor) for helpful comments and suggestions. We thank seminar participants at AEA, ANU, Conference on Behavioral and Experimental Economics, Conference on Empirical Legal Studies, Cornell, Cubist, Dartmouth, Econometric Society, Gerzensee ESSFM, Indiana University, ISNIE, McGill, NBER Behavioral Economics, Northeastern, Norwegian School of Economics, Red Rock Finance Conference, Rice, Rochester, SITE, Texas Finance Festival, University of Chicago,University of Oklahoma, University of Washington, UNSW, Yale Summer School in Behavioral Finance, and Zurich for helpful comments. We also thank Alex Bennett, Luca Braghieri, Leland Bybee, Sarah Eichmeyer, Chattrin Laksanabunsong, and Kaushik Vasudevan for excellent research assistance and Sue Long for helpful discussions about the asylum court data. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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