NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
loading...

Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy

Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, Tao Zha

NBER Working Paper No. 21244
Issued in June 2015
NBER Program(s):Development Economics, Economic Fluctuations and Growth, International Finance and Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics

We make four contributions in this paper. First, we provide a core of macroeconomic time series usable for systematic research on China. Second, we document, through various empirical methods, the robust findings about striking patterns of trend and cycle. Third, we build a theoretical model that accounts for these facts. Fourth, the model's mechanism and assumptions are corroborated by institutional details, disaggregated data, and banking time series, all of which are distinctive of Chinese characteristics. We argue that preferential credit policy for promoting heavy industries accounts for the unusual cyclical patterns as well as the post-1990s economic transition featured by the persistently rising investment rate, the declining labor income share, and a growing foreign surplus. The departure of our theoretical model from standard ones offers a constructive framework for studying China's modern macroeconomy.

download in pdf format
   (634 K)

email paper

A non-technical summary of this paper is available in the October 2015 NBER digest.  You can sign up to receive the NBER Digest by email.

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w21244

Published: Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy, Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, Tao Zha. in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30, Eichenbaum and Parker. 2016

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded* these:
Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe w21253 How Important Are Terms Of Trade Shocks?
Aghion, Akcigit, Bergeaud, Blundell, and Hemous w21247 Innovation and Top Income Inequality
Fang, Gu, Xiong, and Zhou w21112 Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom
Fuchs-Sch√ľndeln and Hassan w21228 Natural Experiments in Macroeconomics
Pritchett and Summers w20573 Asiaphoria Meets Regression to the Mean
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Themes
Data
People
About

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us