NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Chun Chang

Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
211 Huaihai Road, Room 507
Shanghai
China, 200030

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org

NBER Working Papers and Publications

June 2015Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy
with Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, Tao Zha
in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30, Martin Eichenbaum and Jonathan Parker, editors
We make four contributions in this paper. First, we provide a core of macroeconomic time series usable for systematic research on China. Second, we document, through various empirical methods, the robust findings about striking patterns of trend and cycle. Third, we build a theoretical model that accounts for these facts. Fourth, the model's mechanism and assumptions are corroborated by institutional details, disaggregated data, and banking time series, all of which are distinctive Chinese characteristics. We argue that a preferential credit policy for promoting heavy industries accounts for the unusual cyclical patterns as well as the post-1990s economic transition featured by the persistently rising investment rate, the declining labor income share, and a growing foreign surplus. The dep...
Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy
with Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, Tao Zha: w21244
We make four contributions in this paper. First, we provide a core of macroeconomic time series usable for systematic research on China. Second, we document, through various empirical methods, the robust findings about striking patterns of trend and cycle. Third, we build a theoretical model that accounts for these facts. Fourth, the model's mechanism and assumptions are corroborated by institutional details, disaggregated data, and banking time series, all of which are distinctive of Chinese characteristics. We argue that preferential credit policy for promoting heavy industries accounts for the unusual cyclical patterns as well as the post-1990s economic transition featured by the persistently rising investment rate, the declining labor income share, and a growing foreign surplus. T...

Published: Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy, Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, Tao Zha. in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30, Eichenbaum and Parker. 2016

 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Themes
Data
People
About

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us