NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Risks For the Long Run: Estimation with Time Aggregation

Ravi Bansal, Dana Kiku, Amir Yaron

NBER Working Paper No. 18305
Issued in August 2012
NBER Program(s):   AP   EFG   ME

The long-run risks (LRR) asset pricing model emphasizes the role of low-frequency movements in expected growth and economic uncertainty, along with investor preferences for early resolution of uncertainty, as an important economic-channel that determines asset prices. In this paper, we estimate the LRR model. To accomplish this we develop a method that allows us to estimate models with recursive preferences, latent state variables, and time-aggregated data. Time-aggregation makes the decision interval of the agent an important parameter to estimate. We find that time-aggregation can significantly affect parameter estimates and statistical inference. Imposing the pricing restrictions and explicitly accounting for time-aggregation, we show that the estimated LRR model can account for the joint dynamics of aggregate consumption, asset cash flows and prices, including the equity premia, risk-free rate and volatility puzzles.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w18305

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