University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
340 Wohlers Hall
1206 South Sixth Street
Champaign IL 61820
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|August 2012||Risks For the Long Run: Estimation with Time Aggregation|
with Ravi Bansal, Amir Yaron: w18305
The long-run risks (LRR) asset pricing model emphasizes the role of low-frequency movements in expected growth and economic uncertainty, along with investor preferences for early resolution of uncertainty, as an important economic-channel that determines asset prices. In this paper, we estimate the LRR model. To accomplish this we develop a method that allows us to estimate models with recursive preferences, latent state variables, and time-aggregated data. Time-aggregation makes the decision interval of the agent an important parameter to estimate. We find that time-aggregation can significantly affect parameter estimates and statistical inference. Imposing the pricing restrictions and explicitly accounting for time-aggregation, we show that the estimated LRR model can account for the joi...
Published: Ravi Bansal & Dana Kiku & Amir Yaron, 2016. "Risks for the long run: Estimation with time aggregation," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol 82, pages 52-69.
|May 2012||Volatility, the Macroeconomy and Asset Prices|
with Ravi Bansal, Ivan Shaliastovich, Amir Yaron: w18104
We show that volatility movements have first-order implications for consumption dynamics and asset prices. Volatility news affects the stochastic discount factor and carries a separate risk premium. In the data, volatility risks are persistent and are strongly correlated with discount-rate news. This evidence has important implications for the return on aggregate wealth and the cross-sectional differences in risk premia. Estimation of our volatility risks based model yields an economically plausible positive correlation between the return to human capital and equity, while this correlation is implausibly negative when volatility risk is ignored. Our model setup implies a dynamics capital asset pricing model (DCAPM) which underscores the importance of volatility risk in addition to cash-flo...
Published: “Volatility, the Macroeconomy and Asset Prices” (Dana Kiku, Ivan Shaliastovich, and Amir Yaron) Journal of Finance, Volume 69, Issue 6, December 2014, Pages 2471–2511
|November 2009||An Empirical Evaluation of the Long-Run Risks Model for Asset Prices|
with Ravi Bansal, Amir Yaron: w15504
We provide an empirical evaluation of the forward-looking long-run risks (LRR) model and highlight model differences with the backward-looking habit based asset pricing model. We feature three key results: (i) Consistent with the LRR model, there is considerable evidence in the data of time-varying expected consumption growth and volatility, (ii) The LRR model matches the key asset markets data features, (iii) In the data and in the LRR model accordingly, past consumption growth does not predict future asset prices, whereas lagged consumption in the habit model forecasts future price-dividend ratios with an R2 of over 40%. Overall, our evidence implies that the LRR model provides a coherent framework to analyze and interpret asset prices.
Published: "An Empirical Evaluation of the Long-Run Risks Model for Asset Prices", (Dana Kiku and Amir Yaron) Critical Finance Review 2012: Vol. 1:No 1, pp 183-221.
|May 2007||Cointegration and Consumption Risks in Asset Returns|
with Ravi Bansal, Robert Dittmar: w13108
We argue that the cointegrating relation between dividends and consumption, a measure of long run consumption risks, is a key determinant of risk premia at all investment horizons. As the investment horizon increases, transitory risks disappear, and the asset's beta is dominated by long run consumption risks. We show that the return betas, derived from the cointegration-based VAR (EC-VAR) model, successfully account for the crosssectional variation in equity returns at both short and long horizons; this is not the case when the cointegrating restriction is ignored. Our evidence highlights the importance of cointegration-based long run consumption risks for financial markets.
Published: Ravi Bansal & Robert Dittmar & Dana Kiku, 2009. "Cointegration and Consumption Risks in Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1343-1375, March. citation courtesy of