NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Estimating Second Order Probability Beliefs from Subjective Survival Data

Péter Hudomiet, Robert J. Willis

NBER Working Paper No. 18258
Issued in July 2012

---- Acknowledgements -----

We are grateful to grant U01-AG09740 from the Behavioral and Social Research Program of the National Institute on Aging for supporting the collection of the HRS data used in this paper and to NIA grant P01AG026571 for research support. The current paper builds on ideas presented in Hill, Perry and Willis (2004); we are grateful to the late Dan Hill and to Mike Perry for their valuable insights. We are also grateful to Gábor Kézdi and participants at a Duke University seminar for many useful comments on the current paper. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

---- Disclosure of Financial Relationships for Robert J. Willis -----

The primary sources of support for my research are from National Institutes of Health grants U01AG0009740 and P01AG026571. In addition, in the recent past I have received grants from Social Security Administration through the Michigan Retirement Research Center, from the Sloan Foundation and from Pfizer.

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