NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States

David H. Autor, David Dorn, Gordon H. Hanson

NBER Working Paper No. 18054
Issued in May 2012
NBER Program(s):   IFM   LS

We analyze the effect of rising Chinese import competition between 1990 and 2007 on local U.S. labor markets, exploiting cross-market variation in import exposure stemming from initial differences in industry specialization while instrumenting for imports using changes in Chinese imports by industry to other high-income countries. Rising exposure increases unemployment, lowers labor force participation, and reduces wages in local labor markets. Conservatively, it explains one-quarter of the contemporaneous aggregate decline in U.S. manufacturing employment. Transfer benefits payments for unemployment, disability, retirement, and healthcare also rise sharply in exposed labor markets.

download in pdf format
   (1083 K)

email paper

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w18054

Published: David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-68, October. citation courtesy of

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded these:
Heckman and Yi w18100 Human Capital, Economic Growth, and Inequality in China
Bloom, Draca, and Van Reenen w16717 Trade Induced Technical Change? The Impact of Chinese Imports on Innovation, IT and Productivity
Hall, Lotti, and Mairesse w18053 Evidence on the Impact of R&D and ICT Investment on Innovation and Productivity in Italian Firms
Hummels, Jorgensen, Munch, and Xiang w17496 The Wage Effects of Offshoring: Evidence from Danish Matched Worker-Firm Data
Hanson w17961 The Rise of Middle Kingdoms: Emerging Economies in Global Trade
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Themes
Data
People
About

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us