TY  - JOUR
AU  - Blonigen,Bruce A.
AU  - Piger,Jeremy
AU  - Sly,Nicholas
TI  - Comovement in GDP Trends and Cycles Among Trading Partners
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 18032
PY  - 2012
Y2  - May 2012
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w18032
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w18032.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Bruce Blonigen
Department of Economics
1285 University of Oregon
Eugene, OR 97403-1285
Tel: 541/346-4680
Fax: 541/346-1243
E-Mail: bruceb@uoregon.edu

Jeremy Piger
Depart. of Economics
University of Oregon
Eugene, OR  97403-1285
E-Mail: jpiger@uoregon.edu

Nicholas Sly
Department of Economics
1285 University of Oregon
Eugene, OR 97403-1285
E-Mail: sly@uoregon.edu
AB  - It has long been recognized that business cycle comovement is greater between countries that trade intensively with one another. Surprisingly, no one has previously examined the relationship between trade intensity and comovement of shocks to the trend level of output. Contrary to the result for cyclical fluctuations, we find that comovement of shocks to trend levels of real GDP is significantly weaker among countries that trade intensively with one another. We also find that the influence of trade on comovement between shocks to trends has remained stable, or become stronger in recent decades, while the role of trade in generating cyclical comovement has diminished steadily over time. In short, we find that international trade relationships have a substantial impact on comovement of shocks to output trends across countries, and these effects stand in stark contrast to the conventional wisdom regarding cyclical comovement.
ER  -