Depart. of Economics
University of Oregon
Eugene, OR 97403-1285
Information about this author at RePEc
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|May 2012||Comovement in GDP Trends and Cycles Among Trading Partners|
with Bruce A. Blonigen, Nicholas Sly: w18032
It has long been recognized that business cycle comovement is greater between countries that trade intensively with one another. Surprisingly, no one has previously examined the relationship between trade intensity and comovement of shocks to the trend level of output. Contrary to the result for cyclical fluctuations, we find that comovement of shocks to trend levels of real GDP is significantly weaker among countries that trade intensively with one another. We also find that the influence of trade on comovement between shocks to trends has remained stable, or become stronger in recent decades, while the role of trade in generating cyclical comovement has diminished steadily over time. In short, we find that international trade relationships have a substantial impact on comovement of shock...
“Comovement in GDP Trends and Cycles among Trading Partners” with Bruce Blonigen and Nicholas Sly, Journal of International Economics, forthcoming. citation courtesy of
|January 2011||Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment|
with Bruce A. Blonigen: w16704
Empirical studies of bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) activity show substantial differences in specifications with little agreement on the set of covariates that are (or should be) included. We use Bayesian statistical techniques that allow one to select from a large set of candidates those variables most likely to be determinants of FDI activity. The variables with consistently high inclusion probabilities are traditional gravity variables, cultural distance factors, parent-country per capita GDP, relative labor endowments, and regional trade agreements. Variables with little support for inclusion are multilateral trade openness, host country business costs, host-country infrastructure (including credit markets), and host-country institutions. Of particular note, our results sugg...