1944, 1963 and 1985: Modiglianiesque Macro Models

In 1944 Franco Modigliani published a famous article summarizing the Keynesian model; in 1963 he extended the 1944 framework. This paper,written for a conference in honor of Modigliani, asks how the earlier papers would be modified in the light of recent developments in macroeconomics. The attempt is not to summarize modern macroeconomics, but rather to describe the structure modern macroeconomists should have in mind in thinking about the way the economy and macroeconomic policy work. The paper argues that the basic structure of the 1963 model still stands, with modifications. The 1985 version is an extended Phillips-curve-augmented IS-LM model. The major modifications to the 1963 model are in the treatment of the Phillips curve and aggregate supply, in the analysis of expectations, and in the openness of the economy.