TY  - JOUR
AU  - Wolfram,Catherine
AU  - Shelef,Orie
AU  - Gertler,Paul J.
TI  - How Will Energy Demand Develop in the Developing World?
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 17747
PY  - 2012
Y2  - January 2012
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w17747
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w17747.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Catherine Wolfram
Haas School of Business
University of California, Berkeley
Berkeley, CA  94720-1900
Tel: 510/642-2588
Fax: 510/643-1420
E-Mail: wolfram@haas.berkeley.edu

Orie Shelef
Haas School of Business
University of California, Berkeley
Berkeley, CA 94720-1900
E-Mail: orie_shelef@haas.berkeley.edu

Paul Gertler
Haas School of Business
University of California, Berkeley
Berkeley, CA 94720
Tel: 510/642-1418
E-Mail: gertler@haas.berkeley.edu
AB  - Most of the medium-run growth in energy demand is forecast to come from the developing world, which consumed more total units of energy than the developed world in 2007. We argue that the main driver of the growth is likely to be increased incomes among the poor and near-poor. We document that as households come out of poverty and join the middle class, they acquire appliances, such as refrigerators, and vehicles for the first time. These new goods require energy to use and energy to manufacture. The current forecasts for energy demand in the developing world may be understated because they do not accurately capture the dramatic increase in demand associated with poverty reduction.
ER  -