TY  - JOUR
AU  - Colla,Carrie H.
AU  - Dow,William H.
AU  - Dube,Arindrajit
TI  - The Labor Market Impact of Employer Health Benefit Mandates: Evidence from San Francisco’s Health Care Security Ordinance
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 17198
PY  - 2011
Y2  - July 2011
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w17198
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w17198.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Carrie H. Colla
The Dartmouth Institute for
Health Policy and Clinical Practice
Dartmouth Medical School
35 Centerra Parkway
Lebanon, NH 03766
Tel: (603) 650-3521
Fax: (603) 653-0896
E-Mail: carrie.colla@dartmouth.edu

William H. Dow
University of California, Berkeley
School of Public Health
239 University Hall, #7360
Berkeley, CA 94720-7360
Tel: 510/643-5439
Fax: 510/643-6981
E-Mail: wdow@berkeley.edu

Arindrajit Dube
Department of Economics
1030 Thompson Hall
University of Massachusetts Amherst
Amherst, MA 01003
E-Mail: adube@econs.umass.edu
AB  - A key issue surrounding employer benefit mandates is the incidence on workers through wages and employment.  In this paper, we address this question using a pay-or-play policy implemented in San Francisco in 2008 that requires employers to either provide health benefits or contribute to a public option health plan. We estimate the impact on employment and earnings for the private sector overall, as well as for high impact sectors: retail and accommodation and food services. We develop a novel approach for individual case studies by combining both spatial discontinuity in policies and permutation-type inference using other MSAs. We find that, compared to control counties, employment and earnings patterns in San Francisco did not change appreciably following the policy. This was true for industries most affected by the mandate, as well as for overall private sector employment. The results are generally robust to inclusion of different control groups, county-specific time trends, and varying pre-periods. In contrast to the small effects on the labor market, we do find that about 25% of surveyed restaurants imposed customer surcharges, with the median surcharge being 4% of the bill. These results indicate that while little of the burden of the mandate fell on San Francisco workers, approximately half of the incidence of the mandate fell on consumers.
ER  -