NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth

David E. Bloom, David Canning, Günther Fink

NBER Working Paper No. 16705
Issued in January 2011
NBER Program(s):   AG   EFG   LS

The share of the population aged 60 and over is projected to increase in nearly every country in the world during 2005-2050. Population ageing will tend to lower both labor-force participation and savings rates, thereby raising concerns about a future slowing of economic growth. Our calculations suggest that OECD countries are likely to see modest – but not catastrophic – declines in the rate of economic growth. However, behavioral responses (including greater female labor force participation) and policy reforms (including an increase in the legal age of retirement) can mitigate the economic consequences of an older population. In most non-OECD countries, declining fertility rates will cause labor-force-to-population ratios to rise as the shrinking share of young people will more than offset the skewing of adults toward the older ages. These factors suggest that population ageing will not significantly impede the pace of economic growth in developing countries.

download in pdf format
   (275 K)

email paper

A non-technical summary of this paper is available in the July 2011 NBER digest.  You can sign up to receive the NBER Digest by email.

The NBER Bulletin on Aging and Health provides summaries of publications like this.  You can sign up to receive the NBER Bulletin on Aging and Health by email.

This paper is available as PDF (275 K) or via email.

Acknowledgments

Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX

Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w16705

Published: David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.

Users who downloaded this paper also downloaded these:
Bloom, Canning, and Finlay Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia
Bloom, Canning, Fink, and Finlay w13221 Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?
Bloom and Canning w10817 Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance
Poterba w10851 The Impact of Population Aging on Financial Markets
Weil w12147 Population Aging
 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
Data
People
About

Support
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us