NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Is Agricultural Production Becoming More or Less Sensitive to Extreme Heat? Evidence from U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields

Michael J. Roberts, Wolfram Schlenker

NBER Working Paper No. 16308
Issued in August 2010
NBER Program(s):   EEE

Extreme heat is the single best predictor of corn and soybean yields in the United States. While average yields have risen continuously since World War II, we find no evidence that relative tolerance to extreme heat has improved between 1950 and 2005. Climate change forecasts project a sharp increase in extreme heat by the end of the century, with the potential to significantly reduce yields under current technologies.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w16308

Published: Is Agricultural Production Becoming More or Less Sensitive to Extreme Heat? Evidence from U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields, Michael J. Roberts, Wolfram Schlenker. in The Design and Implementation of U.S. Climate Policy, Fullerton and Wolfram. 2012

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