TY  - JOUR
AU  - Manski,Charles F.
TI  - Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 16207
PY  - 2010
Y2  - July 2010
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w16207
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w16207.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Charles F. Manski
Department of Economics
Northwestern University
2001 Sheridan Road
Evanston, IL  60208
Tel: 847/491-8223
Fax: 847/491-7001
E-Mail: cfmanski@northwestern.edu
AB  - Analyses of public policy regularly express certitude about the consequences of alternative policy choices.  Yet policy predictions often are fragile, with conclusions resting on critical unsupported assumptions.  Then the certitude of policy analysis is not credible.  This paper develops a typology of incredible analytical practices and gives illustrative cases.  I call these practices conventional certitudes, dueling certitudes, conflating science and advocacy, and wishful extrapolation.  I contrast these practices with my vision for credible policy analysis.
ER  -