Charles F. Manski
Department of Economics
2211 Campus Drive
Evanston, IL 60208-2600
NBER Program Affiliations:
NBER Affiliation: Research Associate
Information about this author at RePEc
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|August 2018||The Lure of Incredible Certitude|
|April 2018||Tail and Center Rounding of Probabilistic Expectations in the Health and Retirement Study|
with Pamela Giustinelli, Francesca Molinari: w24559
|October 2017||Improving Clinical Guidelines and Decisions under Uncertainty|
|May 2017||Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise|
|April 2017||Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise|
in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, Martin Eichenbaum and Jonathan A. Parker, editors
|September 2016||Credible Ecological Inference for Personalized Medicine: Formalizing Clinical Judgment|
|November 2015||How Do Right-To-Carry Laws Affect Crime Rates? Coping With Ambiguity Using Bounded-Variation Assumptions|
with John V. Pepper: w21701
forthcoming in Review of Economic and Statistics
|August 2014||Vaccine Approvals and Mandates Under Uncertainty: Some Simple Analytics|
|May 2014||Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics|
Published: Manski, Charles F. 2015. "Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics: An Appraisal Fifty Years after Morgenstern." Journal of Economic Literature, 53 (3): 631-53. DOI: 10.1257/jel.53.3.631
|July 2012||Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation|
Published: Charles F. Manski, 2014. "Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 359-376, 05. citation courtesy of
|January 2012||Identification of Preferences and Evaluation of Income Tax Policy|
Published: “Identification of Income-Leisure Preferences and Evaluation of Income Tax Policy,” Quantitative Economics, Vol. 5, No. 1, 2014, pp. 145-174.
|September 2011||Deterrence and the Death Penalty: Partial Identification Analysis Using Repeated Cross Sections|
with John V. Pepper: w17455
Published: “Deterrence and the Death Penalty: Partial Identification Analysis Using Repeated Cross Sections,” with J. Pepper, Journal of Quantitative Criminology, Vol. 29, 2013, No. 1, pp. 123-141.
|July 2010||Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude|
Published: Charles F. Manski, 2011. "Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(554), pages F261-F289, 08. citation courtesy of
|July 2009||WHEN CONSENSUS CHOICE DOMINATES INDIVIDUALISM: Jensen's Inequality and Collective Decisions under Uncertainty|
Published: Charles F. Manski, 2010. "When consensus choice dominates individualism: Jensen's inequality and collective decisions under uncertainty," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 1(1), pages 187-202, 07. citation courtesy of
|October 2008||Using Elicited Choice Probabilities to Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences for Electricity Reliability|
with Asher A. Blass, Saul Lach: w14451
Published: Asher A. Blass & Saul Lach & Charles F. Manski, 2010.
"Using Elicited Choice Probabilities To Estimate Random Utility Models: Preferences For Electricity Reliability,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(2), pages 421-440, 05.
citation courtesy of
|Partial Prescriptions For Decisions With Partial Knowledge|
|Competitive Lending with Partial Knowledge of Loan Repayment|
with William A. Brock: w14378
Published: Competitive Lending with Partial Knowledge of Loan Repayment: Some Positive and Normative Analysis WILLIAM A. BROCK1, CHARLES F. MANSKI2 Article first published online: 21 MAR 2011 DOI: 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2010.00380.x © 2011 The Ohio State University Issue Journal of Money, Credit and Banking Journal of Money, Credit and Banking Volume 43, Issue 2-3, pages 441–459, March-April 2011
|August 2007||Adaptive Minimax-Regret Treatment Choice, With Application To Drug Approval|
|January 2006||Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters|
with Joseph Engelberg, Jared Williams: w11978
Published: Engelberg, Joseph, Charles F. Manski and “Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters." Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 165 (2009): 146-158. citation courtesy of
|December 2005||Search Profiling with Partial Knowledge of Deterrence|
- Manski, Charles F. "Optimal Search Profiling With Linear Deterrence," American Economic Review, 2005, v95(2,May), 12-126.
- Charles F. Manski. "Search Profiling With Partial Knowledge of Deterrence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(515), pages F385-F401, November 2006. citation courtesy of
|October 2005||Fractional Treatment Rules for Social Diversification of Indivisible Private Risks|
|May 2005||Measuring and Interpreting Expectations of Equity Returns|
with Jeff Dominitz: w11313
Published: Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2011. "Measuring and interpreting expectations of equity returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 352-370, 04. citation courtesy of
|March 2004||Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets|
Published: Manski, Charles F. "Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets." Economics Letters 91, 3 (June 2006): 425-29. citation courtesy of
|August 2003||How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence (Sentiment)? Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers|
with Jeff Dominitz: w9926
Published: Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2004. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 51-66, Spring.
|June 2003||"Will Social Security Be There For You?": How Americans Perceive Their Benefits|
with Jeff Dominitz, Jordan Heinz: w9798
|June 2002||Private and Social Incentives for Fertility: Israeli Puzzles|
with Joram Mayshar: w8984
Published: Charles F. Manski & Joram Mayshar, 2003. "Private Incentives and Social Interactions: Fertility Puzzles in Israel," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 181-211, 03.
|January 2002||Social Security Expectations and Retirement Savings Decisions|
with Jeff Dominitz, Jordan Heinz: w8718
|November 2000||Using Studies of Treatment Response to Inform Treatment Choice in Heterogeneous Populations|
|March 2000||Economic Analysis of Social Interactions|
Published: Manski, Charles F. "Economic Analysis Of Social Interactions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2000, v14(3,Summer), 115-136. citation courtesy of
|May 1999||Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations: With Application to Randomized Experiments|
Published: Manski, Charles F. "Statistical Treatment Rules For Heterogeneous Populations," Econometrica, 2004, v72(4,Jul), 1221-1246.
|January 1999||Worker Perceptions of Job Insecurity in the Mid-1990s: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations|
with John D. Straub: w6908
Published: Manski, Charles F. and John D. Straub. "Worker Perceptions Of Job Insecurity In The Mid-1990s: Evidence From The Survey Of Economic Expectations," Journal of Human Resources, 2000, v35(3,Summer), 447-479. citation courtesy of
|February 1998||Monotone Instrumental Variables with an Application to the Returns to Schooling|
with John V. Pepper: t0224
Published: Manski, Charles F. and John V. Pepper. "Monotone Instrumental Variables With An Application To The Returns To Schooling," Econometrica, 2000, v68(4,Jul), 997-1010.
|July 1996||Perceptions of Economic Insecurity: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations|
with Jeff Dominitz: w5690
Published: Dominitz, Jeff and Charles F. Manski. "Perceptions of Economic Insecurity: Evidence From the Survey of Economic Expectations." The Public Opinion Quarterly 61, 2 (Summer 1997): 261-287.
|November 1994||Eliciting Student Expectations of the Returns to Schooling|
with Jeff Dominitz: w4936
Published: Journal of Human Resources, Vol. 31, no. 1 (Winter 1996): 1-26. citation courtesy of
|Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations|
with Jeff Dominitz: w4937
Published: Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1997. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol 92(439), pages 855-867.
|December 1993||The Mixing Problem in Program Evaluation|
Published: Manski, Charles F. "The Mixing Problem In Programme Evaluation," Review of Economic Studies, 1997, v64(221,Oct), 537-553.
|January 1993||Adolescent Econometricians: How Do Youth Infer the Returns to Schooling?|
in Studies of Supply and Demand in Higher Education, Charles T. Clotfelter and Michael Rothschild, editors
|1987||Academic Ability, Earnings, and the Decision to Become a Teacher: Evidence from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972|
in Public Sector Payrolls, David A. Wise, editor
|1985||Academic Ability, Earnings, and the Decision to Become a Teacher: Evidence From the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972|
Published: Wise, David (ed.) Public Sector Payrolls. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1987.
|October 1976||An Empirical Investigation of Factors Which Influence College-Going Behavior|
with Meir G. Kohn, David S. Mundel
in Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, Sanford V. Berg, editor